Beyond the Golden Way

Duma Protests and the Russian Orthodox Church

2011-12-12T11:54:00.006-05:00

The general sense this week is that something has changed in Russia. The people definitely feel it, as demonstrated by the protests. Investors feel it, and some are pulling their money out of Russia's stock market.

Now the Russian Orthodox Church has chimed in, albeit in a somewhat oblique way.

"It is evident that the secretive nature of certain elements of the electoral system concerns people, and there must be more public control over this system," said Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin, the most prominent spokesman for the church, in remarks to a widely followed Orthodox news Web site. "We must decide together how to do this through civilized public dialogue."

That's a very convoluted way of saying "We're not sure what just happened, but we think we may not like it. Also, stay calm everybody."

The Russian Orthodox Church is a notoriously conservative institution, in the sense that it is truly ancient, and change has not been good to it. The church has also repeatedly been labeled as either a partner or puppet of the Putin/Medvedev administration. I've expressed concerns about its close cooperation with the state before too. At left is the Patriarch and the Prime Minister with a descendant of imperial nobility.

Still, the Moscow Patriarchate has denied such criticism in the past, and now the Church is the one giving the criticism. The same NYT article linked above [and again here] also quotes an unnamed Orthodox priest:

Falsification of the choice of the people is a grievous sin. There can be no justification for it.

The article then goes on to quote the editor of a popular Orthodox website, who says

A Christian has to protest against lies, especially lies to millions...

A particularly outspoken priest has an article on that same website comparing the Ruling Powers to the Pharisees in the Gospels. He gets pretty impassioned, and ends with this plea:

This election is a very rare model of lies and hypocrisy. And Christians should not and cannot tolerate it.

Precisely which external measures should be taken to counter this blatant lie is not really for me to say. But just to give up and pretend that everything is fine – this is, in my opinion, a sin against one’s conscience, against one’s country, and against our past and our future.

This quote probably does not reflect the official opinion of the Russian Orthodox Church. But, if its clergymen feel safe throwing this kind of criticism at the ruling powers, then maybe something really has changed.

Duma Protests Getting Real

2011-12-10T11:35:00.004-05:00

I have a brief reprieve from exams, so I'm back for a moment. Also, This doesn't count as a post about the election anymore, because things are getting weird:

In the immediate day or two after the election, there were a few small comparatively small protests. Now they have mushroomed into something enormous.

I haven't had much time to look into this too deeply, but this quote from a 65-year old ex-communist is very telling [link]:

"I defended the parliament building in 1993 from tanks. This is similar in numbers and its unanimity to the rallies of the early 1990s, but the goals are different.
"The regime must work honestly or leave. Most people don't trust their fancy words any more. It's becoming a mass phenomenon, and it's great to see so many young people here."

Wow. I have heard numbers of up to 100,000 in Bolotnaya Square in Moscow alone. That group's demands supposedly are these:

1) Freeing of political prisoners.
2) Cancellation of the results of the Duma election.
3) The resignation of the head of the Central Election Commission Vladimir Churov.
4) The registration of all political parties (many were denied it this time), and a re-run of the Duma elections.

Apparently even the state-sanctioned opposition parties, including A Just Russia, are planning protests for next week. An interesting winter lies ahead.

* The poster held in the picture reads "ENOUGH LIES. [GIVE] RUSSIA HONEST ELECTIONS!"

Russian Duma Election - 2011 - Interactive Map

2011-12-05T12:10:00.003-05:00

Seriously, this is my last post on this topic.

Gazeta.ru has put together a marvelous interactive map showing vote results by region, part, turnout and fraud allegations (in Russian). Enjoy!

Russian Duma Election - 2011 - End Results

2011-12-05T00:17:00.004-05:00

[Due to other obligations, this will probably be my last post on this topic for a while. If you've been reading a long, thank you and I hope you learned something!]

Preliminary official results, with more than 90% of the vote counted, show United Russia losing a popular majority, but still sure to retain a majority in the Duma. BBC Russia now reports the same with 95% counted. If the threshold for getting into the Duma was 3% of the vote instead of 7%, Yabloko would have won seats, and United Russia would have lost its majority by a thin margin.

As in the past, allegations of fraud abound, and a huge chunk of the electorate did not turn out to vote.

My opinion would be that this changes nothing. United Russia will still control the Duma, and if they want to amend the Constitution some more, all they have to do is enter into a coalition with "A Just Russia." Such a coalition would probably come easily and quickly.

The Western media will make a big deal about how this portends trouble for Prime Minister Putin when he runs in next year's Presidential elections. I don't think it will. Unless the entirety of the opposition can unite behind a single candidate, no one will beat the Prime Minister. Such a union is highly unlikely. This is even assuming no fraud in that election.

The real importance of this election's result is symbolic: a majority, however slim, of Russians disapprove of the ruling powers enough to vote against them. If we believe the allegations of fraud and intimidation, then this majority would probably in fact be much larger. You will hear a lot in the coming days and weeks about what this shift in public opinion really portends for the future. I cannot speculate on that. I will instead wait to see.

Russian Duma Election - 2011 - Early Exit Polls

2011-12-04T19:01:00.004-05:00

Some exit polls are indicating that United Russia might actually lose its majority in the Duma.

A few notes:

1) Even if it does lose its majority, United Russia will still be the biggest party in Parliament by far, and very close to a majority.

2) Even if it does lose a majority, I would expect United Russia to simply form a coalition with the pro-Kremlin "A Just Russia" (Справедливая Россия) Party, and continue on its merry way. The most dramatic exit poll still indicates that United Russia and A Just Russia would still combine to form a 52% majority.

3) However, even a coalition government might not have the 2/3-majority necessary to amend the Russian Constitution at will. The Constitutional order could finally stabilize.

4) Imagine what could happen if the missing 30% of the electorate actually turned out to vote!*

5) Imagine what could happen if there was no electoral fraud!*

ADDENDUM: A nice graphic of an exit poll by RIA Novosti can be found here. This version would actually have United Russia retaining its majority in Parliament, despite losing the popular vote. This is a distinct possibility at this point.

*Those stituations might lead to Communist or LDPR takeover of the Duma, which would probably be bad. I would say "maybe Yabloko could win," but that doesn't look likely any time soon.

Russian Duma Election - 2011 - Mini-Roundup

2011-12-04T09:22:00.003-05:00

Here's a few bits of news from different places on the election.

Siberian Light gives a good brief summary of the election. Between various accounts, turnout across Russia seems to average out to about the same as 2007. International observers are generally positive, but Russia's domestic watchdogs are having a really bad day. United Russia is still expected to win.

Russia Profile reports much of the same. Though they call campaign by the various opposition parties "extraordinarily intense," and note that most Russians are dissatisfied with government policies, United Russia is still expected to win. Also, they remind us that despite being the champions of United Russia, neither Putin nor Medvedev are formally members of either party.

Also, see the previous post for more precise numbers on voter turnout in Tyva and Buryatiya.

Duma Elections 2011 - Buryatiya

2011-12-03T23:58:00.007-05:00

I was once told that I use an unorthodox spelling of Buryatiya. Thoughts, anyone?

Anyway, according to the official report, approximately 14% of the Republic's registered voters had turned out by noon on the day of the election.

Despite some truly bizarre and extraordinary polls conducted in Russia's mass media, I suspect a low turnout still means a United Russia Victory.*

It's been a while since I was in Russia, but I can't imagine too many more people turning out as the day wears on. Even if 3 times as many people turn out in the afternoon, that still means the turnout is stuck somewhere between 50 and 60 percent of the electorate. That's not great, and doesn't imply a good attitude towards Russian Democracy on the part of everyday Russians.

UPDATE: By 3PM, about 35% of Buryatiya's electorate had voted. Also, in Tyva, about 28% had voted by Noon. That's quite a bit more than in the Buryat Republic.

UPDATE#2: By 3PM, about 52% of Tyva had voted.

UPDATE #3: By 6PM, about 70% of Tyva had voted. Some regions reported up to 88% local turnout.

*This is as usual on the assumption that the polls aren't rigged. Right.

Duma Follow-Up

2011-12-01T14:04:00.003-05:00

From the super-professional Russia Profile blog, we have another discussion of the upcoming Duma election.

Basic points are these: 1) the election is unlikely to change anything, 2) the masses are getting discontented with both United Russia and the opposition (especially as they conspire with each other) and 3) chaos may be coming, if not next week then soon.

This quote is especially interesting:

Predictions here are a messy and risky business, but I’d venture one: stability, which in Russia was precarious even in the best of times, is over,” wrote [journalist] Von Eggert. “The December 4 Duma elections, as well as the March presidential ones, will be the last ones the Kremlin will be able to control.”

2012 may not be the end of the world, but it could be the start of something new for Russia.

Russian State Duma Elections (2011)

2011-11-30T13:44:00.013-05:00

[Again, it's been a while since last I posted. Also, I'm not talking about Mongolia today. Someday I'll again write regularly about Mongolia, but for now please accept this humble post instead. It's long, but important. It's about the possible fallout of the the coming Russian elections. I don't think a Russian Spring is particularly likely, but the potential for a disastrous parody of democratic uprising is there.]

So, Russia's having an election. By any of the current polls, United Russia ("Putin's Party") is very likely to win. They also have a really cool bear in their logo (see left). Of course, the Bear is a symbol of Russia, but it's also the core of the President's name, the word for Bear being medved', and the President's name being Medvedev. Fascinating, I know.

Even if less than half of the country supports United Russia, it will still remain in control. In most of the polls, roughly 1/3 of Russia expresses some kind of disinterest or apathy that will likely lead to their not voting. This is unsurprising since a lot of people felt the last election was rigged. Even if the election were free and fair this time, unless 1/3 of the country surprisingly shows up to vote, and picks the opposition, then United Russia will win. The largest opposition party is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and they've developed a reputation of being the Party of the Old People. I don't see Russia's undecided voting for them.

So, Putin's Party will win, any protest will be quelled by state security services, and life will continue as usual. Or maybe not; let's take a look at South Ossetia.

"Where's that?" you ask. South Ossetia is, depending on who you talk to, either a part of Georgia, an independent country on Russia's southern border, or a Russian puppet state carved out of Georgia's heart.

In the last week, South Ossetia had an election for President . The expected winner, the opposition candidate, was announced as the loser, and the Supreme Court has since barred her from participating in a re-run. (For those who suspect Russian meddling, both candidates are viewed as solidly pro-Russian.)

Now, there's a protest. Between 1,000 and 3,000 people are contesting the results in public. South Ossetia is, according to Wikipedia, home to 72,000 people. As Andy of the Siberian Light blog (see here for a wide array of readable and enjoyable posts) notes, even the 1,000-person crowd is really significant in a place that small.

So, what happens if a similar crowd turns out to protest next week's election in Russia? Let's say the 3,000 person figure is right. If so, that's 1 in 24 people in the "country" of South Ossetia protesting. If 1 in 24 people out of Russia's 143 million protest next week's election there, that would be about 6 million people. By contrast, perhaps 5.5 million people participated in the Russian Civil War that birthed the Soviet Union. If that many people are that upset with Russia's Duma election, then God only knows what could happen.

Of course, I make some huge assumptions in talking that way. I assume that opponents of Russia's leadership aren't overwhelmed by apathy, and the struggle to survive the Russian winter. I assume that Southern Ossetia and Russia have enough in common to make using one as a predictor of the other even remotely plausible. I assume that if coordination of mass discontent is impossible from above, then it might possibly come from below, as in the recent "Arab Spring."

Sean Guillroy (of the excellent Sean's Russia Blog) suggests that Russia's youth might have the potential to lead a mass-protest movement. A grass-roots protest could be possible. But he also warns that any protest movement could turn extraordinarily ugly very fast.

As Sean points out, the currently-popular mass protest movements usually center around nationalist sentiments. They wave the imperial flag (see right) and shout things like "Russia for Russians!" and "[explicative] the Jews!" The largest of these protests, the annual "Russian March" is not known for a message of tolerance or peace. Quite the opposite. I do not want people having access to Russia's 1000+ nuclear warheads when they also shout things like "STOP FEEDING THE CAUCUSES" (link here, in Russian).

It is possible, if unlikely that Russia could have a post-election crisis and a subsequent "Russian Spring." If that does happen, I would caution everyone everywhere to be very cautious about supporting it. Your alternatives to the Putin/Medvedev tandemocracy are the Communist Party, ultranationalists, and a legitimate democratic movement whose poll numbers peak at around 3%. (See here, and look for Yabloko, but not the tragically misleading "Liberal Democratic" party). The chances for a Russian Spring that doesn't end in international catastrophe look pretty small right now.

But then, maybe that's what Putin wants us to think.*

*Or not. This is Russia we're talking about. Riddle, mystery, enigma, the usual.

Genghis Khan: A Dangerous Man Out for Justice

2011-07-07T17:39:00.004-04:00

Wouldn't that be a great title?

Steven Seagal wants to star in a movie about Genghis Khan. He wrote the script himself, he says. He wants the Russian film industry to make it, he says.

Of course, this is going to great. The mayor of Astana is involved! Actors are being scouted in China! This is totally going to be historically accurate and ethnically sensitive. Yes.

No. This has "unfortunate" written all over it. Also "likely box office flop," and "possibly will upset the Mongolian people." I've heard A Proud Son of Heaven was a decent film, but as far as I know, none of the other movies about Temujin's life have been especially good. I am not flooded with confidence that a project led by and starring Steven Seagal would be any better.

If you have the money and the ego, I suppose there's nothing stopping a famous actor from playing the Great Khan. But, why not do this: Why not donate the money to a Mongolian film studio, and let them make a massive epic about their own national hero? Just a thought. If playing Genghis Khan is really your life's dream, then go for it. But, Mr. Seagal, instead of making a massive vanity piece for yourself, why not help make jobs in Mongolia instead?

Hat tip to Registan and the Guardian.

Tyvan Gospel

2011-07-05T14:20:00.003-04:00

(Religious buildings in Tyva, from Новые Исследованые Тувы)

This only tangentially related to Mongolian things, but it caught my eye and I had a free moment: The Holy Bible has been translated into Tyvan!

That only took a few hundred years.

Personally, as a Christian, I think this is great. However, I'm worried by a few things in that article.

Firstly, this translation exists under the auspices of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Tyvan Ministry of Culture. I'm a bit uneasy about state institutions taking part in religious endeavors. Thomas Jefferson agrees with me on that one. Why should the State be doing the Church's work for them? It's really easy to make mistakes this way. This can only fuel speculation that the Russian Church and State are too close. I don't have a solid opinion on that point, but church-state collaboration on a Bible translation makes me nervous.

Secondly, the article quotes the Moscow Patriarchate website as saying "of the languages of the peoples of Russia, other than Russian [the Bible exists] only in Chuvash and Tyvan. I'm think the Patriarchate and I have a very different understanding of "the peoples of Russia." Of the many peoples of Russia, at least Ukrainians, Armenians, Germans (famously), Belarusians, and many others have had complete Bible translations for ages. Even the Ossetians have one, though that one was done by Jehova's witnesses, so I guess the Patriarchate won't acknowledge it. The Buryat-Mongols got one in 1840, though it may have disappeared. Still, that the Patriarchate chooses to ignore these other complete Bible translations could be significant. I'll decline to speculate on how, for now.

About that Riot...

2011-07-04T09:52:00.005-04:00

Happy 4th of July, everyone! I am lucky enough to hail from the greatest country on Earth, and today is my motherland's birthday.

That said, I really logged on here today for the first time in months to talk about that riot from 3 years ago. Do you remember the riot?

Either way, there was a press conference about it last week. President Enkhbayar attended, as did representatives of the other major parties.

This is the most interesting part:

Enkhbayar, who was President at the time, said the July 1 demonstration had started in a small way, but the fire lit by a matchstick had turned into a conflagration, fueled by both parties and stoked by incompetent handling by all in authority. His pleas for effective action had been in vain and he had been forced to declare a state of emergency much against his wish, but there was no choice. Flowers were laid at the victims’ memorial after the press conference.

So, is he taking responsibility or evading it? He says "all in authority" handled the situation incompetently, and that he declared the emergency, but "against his wish, [and] there was no choice."

I doubt we'll ever really know what happened that day, but it's a sign of how important the riot was that the former President is still talking about it three years later.

Found Him!

2011-04-22T23:33:00.005-04:00

I mentioned once that I was disappointed that Civilization V wouldn't include the Mongols. Since then, that horrible oversight has been fixed:

This isn't my video, but still, you get the point. Thanks Firaxis!

I'm not sure Chinggis Khaan sounds threatening enough, but otherwise it seems a fair approximation to me.

(Also, if for some reason you can't see the right side of the video, try it on the original You Tube site.)

Shares for Everyone?

2011-03-31T15:01:00.002-04:00

So, this article showed up in my newsfeed today. It's extremely bare-bones, little more than a headline and a few notes, with an out-of-context picture from a U.S. stock exchange stuck in the middle.

The article's premise is that every citizen of Mongolia will get 536 "ordinary shares of the Tavantolgoi deposit."

Does this mean the people get voting power? In which commercial entity are these shares? If they're "ordinary," that implies someone has preferred shares somewhere, and I'd expect those to be scheduled in some way. How much power above the ordinary shares do those have?

Will the Ikh Khural fade away before the awesome power of the Shareholder's Meeting of some dystopian Mongolcorp?

Perhaps it's because I've been distracted for a while, but this seems like an immensely important story. I'm sure there's more to it out there somewhere.

Sansar!

2011-02-16T11:11:00.001-05:00

It's been a while. That seems to be normal. But this one I couldn't resist:

Mongolia Hopes to Launch Space Satellite by 2015.

Who cares if it's wishful thinking, it's still an amazing thought!

UB State of Mind

2010-09-17T09:08:00.002-04:00

Hello readers!

I know I haven't posted a lot recently. I've been busy.

Still, I am here today because my friend J sent me a video accredited in part to Benj Binks. The video moved me enough that I thought I would share it with you.

I suspect everyone will find something to love in this one.

Bolormaa

2010-06-30T18:31:00.006-04:00

Khadjisureniin Bolormaa, First Lady of Mongolia, gave a talk yesterday at the Woman's National Democratic Club in Washington D.C. (see here).

I was lucky enough to be able to hear her speak. Primarily, she addressed women's and children's issues in her home country. For example, Mongolia is introducing education reforms for compulsory universal education from ages 6 to 18. New hospitals to specialize in cancer-diagnosis are also being built there. Additionally, she discussed a Gender Equality Law currently being mooted in the Ikh Khural's various committees.

She also talked about her and her husband's experiences raising five children, four sons and a daughter, and de facto adopting twenty-five more from an orphanage near where they live. As she put it, when traveling she shops not for five but for thirty! Those twenty-five don't live with her, as you might imagine, and her family is instead constructing new housing specially for them.

Bolormaa also mentioned the Bolor Charity that she runs, and their programs to help street children. Currently, Ulaanbaatar has about forty centers designed to help over 1,400 homeless orphan children in that city. The First Lady hopes that her charity will be able to make an impact of some kind on the plight of those children. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find the Bolor Charity's website, so if any of you readers know it, please do tell me so I can link to it.

After her speech, the floor was opened for audience questions. Regarding the quota for women in the Ikh Khural, Bolormaa indicated that though that quota had recently been lowered from 30% to 10%, the current government is considering re-instating the old percentage. When asked about continuing education opportunities for women, Bolormaa noted that recent years had seen the growth of night-course-programs in the cities, and expanded ger-education programs for nomads.

About the role of Buddhist monastic education in Mongolia, she said that Buddhism is of course traditionally revered in Mongolia and that such values must be taught by parents and families.

Following the questions, a survivor of the Mongolian orphanage system emotionally thanked the First Lady for her efforts on behalf of orphans and Mongolia's children. She also gave the First Lady a small gift, which Bolormaa gladly received.

All told, First Lady Bolormaa was very kind, polite, and conversational. I enjoyed her talk, and was honored to meet her afterwards. All I really know about her husband is what is already public knowledge, but if he's anything like her at all, then Mongolia is in good hands.

Dude, Where's My Horse?

2010-06-10T23:00:00.006-04:00

I am super excited about the new iteration of the Civilization franchise.

Unfortunately, I am also sad to learn that the Mongols will not feature in the release-day version of the game. This doesn't make me angry, really. Probably nothing about this series of games could ever really make me mad.

Also, I'm sure Genghis Khan and the Empire will show up later. The Ulus will return, possibly in an expansion, probably in some kind of downloadable-content-for-pay scheme.

Still, I'm a little disappointed that I won't be able to launch Civ 5 and conquer the world from the back of a horse. Maybe next time.

(Also, I know I haven't posted in a while. Maybe if we're lucky I'll get to do more soon.)

Days Go By

2010-03-17T17:55:00.003-04:00

I know a lot of more important things have happened lately, but I had a free moment and this amused me:

Ulan-Ude marks "Days of Tibet," commemorating 51 years since the Tibetan Uprising and Chita marks "Days of Microsoft," commemorating, well, who knows what.

Perhaps the two cities just have different priorities.

Mongols in Space

2010-01-28T17:45:00.007-05:00

I feel like this often happens. I vanish for a while, only to return saying "I won't be able to post as much," and then blammo three posts in two days.

On the heels of the Mobicom-3G thing, we also have this little story about Mongolia's Orbinet (apparently part of the MCS conglomerate-thing) buying satellite bandwidth from Canada's Telesat. [Satellite Today] Unfortunately, I'm not a subscriber to that website, so I can't read the whole article, but I'd suspect it's mostly about how both companies are pleased with themselves and the work they're doing in developing Mongolia. Since I can't read it, I'm going to babble a bit about Mongolia's space-history.

Yes, Mongolia has history in space.

Mongolia has had two Cosmonauts (emphatically not astronauts, being trained by the USSR): Maidarzhavyn Ganzorig and Jügderdemidiin Gürragchaa.

As fate would have it, Ganzorig was Gürragchaa's backup and never went to space. Gürragchaa, on the other hand, spent well over a week orbiting the Earth in 1981 and was later Mongolia's Defense Minister. When I was in Dornod province in 2008, I saw a very small monument to his flight as part of a larger symbolic graveyard (whose exact purpose wasn't clear to me):

(I haven't uploaded a picture here in a long time, so remember you can click on it to see a larger version. Also, the Mongolian word for "cosmos" is сансар, with "in the cosmos" being сансарт, which you can see written below the Red Star.)

Mongolia has for some time now been part of Intercosmos, the Warsaw Pact space cooperation organization, and Intersputnik, a very large IGO for satellite communications.

As if that wasn't enough, just south of the border in Inner Mongolia is China's busiest spaceport, the Jiquan Satellite Launch Center. Jiquan is also where China launches its own taikonauts.

Granted, essentially all of Mongolia's activities in space have been dependent on its Soviet/Russian and Chinese neighbors. But still, for a small country that most people know better for its felt tents and horses, this is pretty good. One can only hope that someday there will be more.

I would love to see a second Mongolian astro/cosmo/taiko, or even Sansarnaut head to space. For now though, that's just a dream.

UB3G

2010-01-28T16:22:00.006-05:00

I just have to ask, Чи намайг одоохондоо сонсож чадах уу?

Or, can you hear me now? (Pretty sure that I got that right. I'm a bit out of practice lately.)

Anyway, Mobicom is apparently getting a 3G network in Mongolia. Being a de facto Luddite for anything made after about 2005, I have yet to hear a satisfactory explanation of what 3G means, but I'm given to understand that this is a big step into the future for Mongolia's telecom infrastructure.

Soon you'll be able to walk around downtown UB and watch streaming video on your iPad at the same time.

It's also yet another huge piece of Chinese investment in Mongolia-the-Country. The winner of the contract is apparently Alcatel-Lucent Shanghai Bell, the Chinese subsidiary of Alcaltel-Lucent. Is it just me or does Alcatel-Lucent Shanghai Bell sound like just the kind of horrible MegaCorp that haunt the boardrooms of darker scifi works like Blade Runner and Shadowrun and the rest of cyberpunk?

Alcatel-Lucent Shanghai Bell: Bringing you the U.S. House of Representatives and the Mongolian Ikh Khural since 2010.

(Of course, I exaggerate... I think.)

Zud

2010-01-26T22:26:00.003-05:00

Hello readers! Supposedly there are at least 11 of you. I hope all of you have been well!

I admit it's been a while since I posted, but between exams, the holidays, and the new semester I have been busy. I don't know how often I'll be able to post in the near future, but I'll do what I can.

At any rate, today I wanted to draw your attention to a natural disaster on the steppe. Admittedly it pales in scope and impact compared to the horrible earthquake in Haiti, but for individual Mongols it can and will be devastating.

Mongolia is already notoriously cold, but every so often the country gets hit with a winter so staggeringly cold that the Mongolian language has a special word to describe it. It is called a Zud. When a summer drought is followed by a colder-than-average winter, livestock herds are shattered, people die in their tents, and livelihoods are ruined.

This year's Zud is "white," meaning the country is covered in heavy snowfall. For a comparatively arid country, this is pretty bad. (Though admittedly the so-called "Iron Zud" sounds a whole lot worse.)

In the long run, this will mean worsened poverty, increased internal migration, more overcrowding in Ulaanbaatar as refugees relocate there, and a severe blow to both the national economy and traditional nomadic culture.

For the moment though, if you're there, stay safe, stay warm, and if you can stay inside!

Tavan Tolgoi Delay

2009-12-04T09:58:00.003-05:00

In a move that surprises no one, the selection of winner in the Tavan Tolgoi bidding process has been delayed until an indeterminate time next year [Reuters].

And once that happens, then they get to make an Investment Agreement.

And once that happens, then they get to send it to Parliament.

This could take a while.

The True Cost of Gold

2009-11-28T10:09:00.001-05:00

I know I talk a lot about how awesome mining will be for Mongolia's economy.

I often gloss over the dark side of this industry: the destruction of the environment and the consequences that brings for public health.

Today, this post from a fly fishing blog showed up in my news feed.

In it, is a sobering yet beautifully shot National Geographic piece about mining and the environment in Monglia. It's short, but still worth watching. It also hints that "Western" miners are more inclined to undertake environmental protection measures than their Chinese or Russian counterparts. I suspect that this is true, but I can't say for sure.

Anyway, enjoy the clip. The second one is a very short thing on the Taimen fish, also worth watching:

Mongolia Becoming Like America?

2009-11-18T08:20:00.004-05:00

Firstly, certain Mongols are taking on very Protestant attitudes towards the form of Buddhism practiced in the country. Things like "original Buddhism didn't believe this," "the clergy has a reputation for corruption," and "class oppression." Might we see a truly Mongolian Buddhism arise in the next century? My hunch would be probably not, but who knows. The connection here is that America is something of a hotbed for Protestantism. Most English-speaking former colonies of Great Britain are like that, but perhaps America especially.

Then there's Mongolia's athletes stomping the crap out of Japan's. Sure it's Sumo and not Baseball, Basketball, (American) Football, or any of the sports played over here. But it's a start.

Then there's the spooky energy conglomerate looking to claim a stake in both coal and oil. Yeehaw. Just like Texas right?

The Eyes of Truth Watch the Mirage in the Matrix

2009-11-13T18:21:00.005-05:00

To get from Altan Urag and throat singing to Keanu Reeves and the Matrix, you don't even need all six degrees.

Start here, with the Altan Urag version of a classical Mongolian song [Mongolian Music]:

Then go to this song, by a certain European group [YouTube]:

Then stop at this trailer for one of the awesomest movies ever [YouTube]:

Your journey might start sooner than you think.

The Rehabilitation of Temujin

2009-11-11T12:46:00.004-05:00

Over at Eurasianet, Josh Kucera has put together a pretty fantastic article.

Having traveled in Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, and Buryatiya, he relates the changing views of Chinggis Khaan in those lands where his memory is strongest today. Even the Chinese Communist Party and a number of Russian intellectuals look back on him fondly, though they do so under wildly different rationales and for very different reasons.

Go give his article a read.

Third Railway

2009-11-11T10:06:00.006-05:00

The news I wanted to mention came up earlier this week. Leighton Asia, a branch of Leighton Holdings (Australia's largest investment group) has been awarded a huge contract to build a completely new rail line in Mongolia [Rail-News.com]. As one might expect, this is not a passenger line, but rather a freight rail for the ever-growing Mongolian mining industry.

What makes this interesting, is that this rail line will be (as I understand it) entirely outside of the control of Russian Railways. Since it will never connect to the trans-Mongolian railway, Russian Railways should have no claim to it at all. Leighton Asia also apparently controls the Ukhaa Khudag coal mine at the Mongolian end of the rail, and the south end will connect to China's rail network. At no point will the mysterious and shadowy "Russian interests" have any sort of enforceable interest here.

However, watching for official Russian statements about this line might give one a good measure of Russia's influence in Mongolia. If the mysterious and shadowy "Russian interests" manage to wrench control of this line away from Leighton, then obviously this would be a bad sign about Mongolia's ability to resist external pressure. If they don't try at all, then that would indicate Russia's influence in the country has real limits. If they try and fail however, this might be the best result. If "Russian interests" overextend themselves and are rebuffed by their Mongolian counterparts, we might conclude that Mongolia's state is reasonably sturdy and capable of deciding its own fate.

Or I could be totally wrong, who knows.

At the least, maybe this railroad will actually be in China's gauge and its trains won't have to stop at the border for several hours to switch out the wheels.

The Eagle Hunter's Son

2009-11-11T00:06:00.004-05:00

There was some news I wanted to talk about, but this is prettier, and reasonably epic:

Hat tip: Mongolian Music

(And if you're seeing this through Facebook, see the original for the embedded movie.)

Korean Trees, Kalmyk Tea and Buriat Pop

2009-11-03T17:21:00.003-05:00

Three fun little articles today about things Mongolian:

Firstly, South Korea has decided that it's sick of sandstorms washing over it out of Inner Mongolia, and that something should be done to prevent this in the future. It's solution? Plant 72,000 trees in the middle of the desert. Will it work? Who knows. Will it be awesome? Yes.

Then there's this Kalmyk legend on the origin of their tea tradition. Given that all Kalmyks are descended from people who at some point left Mongolia, and that the story refers to Tsongkhapa, the father of the Dalai Lama's Gelugpa school of Tibetan Buddhism, the legend is probably told in Mongolia and Tibet too. I have no idea if it's true, but it is a neat take on an old tradition. Also, I would be interested to hear how Kalmyk tea etiquette compares to that of the Khalkh Mongols or other groups. Anyone?

Lastly, a fun little post on a Buriat Popstar, Medegma Dorzhieva. The music of the two songs in that link and the visuals her and her dancers have chosen to adopt are characteristic of mainstream Russian pop music, which I find to be kind of bland and uninspired. However, she does appear to have a good deal of innate talent and she actually sings in Buriat, which are both good points. Who knows, perhaps we'll see her again on the international stage someday?

Prime Minister Batbold

2009-10-29T08:17:00.002-04:00

Just a quick note because I hardly know anything about the guy:

Sukhbaatariin Batbold is the new Prime Minister.

That was quick.

The new PM was approved by both President Elbegdorj and the overwhelming majority of Parliament. He is also a Russian and British-trained expert in a few things that might be relevant to his new job. Things like Foreign Relations, Economics and Mining.

Mr. Prime Minister, I wish you good luck.

Bayar Resigns

2009-10-26T08:19:00.003-04:00

Citing health concerns, Prime Minister Sanjaagiin Bayar handed in his resignation today. He will apparently stay on as chairman of the MPRP, at least for the time being.

It is speculated that Parliamentary Speaker Enkhbold (not the previous Prime Minister) will take over the office next.

I don't know anything about this Enkhbold, but if he does take office we'll have to come up with a witty way to distinguish him from his predecessor. Maybe Enkhbold II, Enkhbold the Younger (if he is younger) or Enkhbold 26. This could be fun.

Disco Lies

2009-10-24T11:33:00.003-04:00

Russia's bid for Tavan Tolgoi is being led by both Gazprom and Oleg Deripaska [MonInfo]. Oleg Deripaska, for those who don't know, is one of Russia's oligarchs. He is also Russia's richest citizen. Britain doesn't like him for being manipulative of Russia's courts and Vladimir Putin once called him a "greedy cockroach". If this guy weren't filthy rich, I'd say he just can't catch a break.

Then there's MineWeb's report on the "Russian disinformation campaign" targeted at mining interests in Mongolia. Though MineWeb blames undefined "Russian Interests" for the campaign, they do provide an interesting theory for Russia's threats about Mongolia's debt earlier this month. MineWeb thinks it and the ongoing railroad mess are all part of a concerted effort to make sure Gazprom and Mr. Deripaska get to develop Tavan Tolgoi.

Earlier this year, I would have been quick to cast doubt on such a conspiracy theory. I still think that saying "Russian interests" is no better than Russian media claims about "Western" or "Chinese" interests. It's just sloppy and it doesn't constitute proof of anything. However, given Russia's behavior in the last few months, a Great Game-style plot is far from unlikely.

I would hope Mongolia picks someone other than the Russian consortium to develop Tavan Tolgoi, if just to avoid rewarding bad behavior.

Back at Oyu Tolgoi...

2009-10-23T10:23:00.003-04:00

Ivanhoe declares it is ready to begin mine construction [MonInfo].

According to that article:

The deposit is the size of Manhattan.
Mongolia's GDP may increase by 30% per year for 30 years.
For four billion USD in investment, it might return up to fifty billion.

I know the Oyu Tolgoi project is very important in a lot of ways, but sometimes I'm astounded by just how massive its impact will be.

Wither the Five Hills?

2009-10-23T10:03:00.005-04:00

The Next Big Thing in Mongolia's adventures with mining will most likely be the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit.

I had been under the impression for a long time that Ivanhoe Mines had long ago secured the extraction rights to that site, but apparently all they had was some exploration rights somehow in conjunction with BHP Biliton [South Gobi Energy, end of page].

Who will actually get to mine "the world's largest undeveloped coal field" is very much up in the air [Reuters].

Candidates include the following, with nationality in parentheses:

BHP Billiton (UK-Australia)
Jindal (India)
Vale (Brazil)
Peabody (USA)
Shenhua (PRC - Also does a lot of work in Inner Mongolia)
COPEC (South Korea)

and two nameless consortia, one from Japan and the other from Russia, the latter being led by Gazprom.

Eight competing options from eight different countries. The Mongolian government must feel like the prettiest girl at the ball, albeit in a dress made out of coal.

If I had to make a wild guess at who will win, I would pick BHP Billiton because apparently did a lot of exploration work at the site. However, Gazprom and Shenhua carry a lot of weight in this part of the world, so I'd put them in positions #2 and #3. It's still quite possible, on the other hand, that Mongolia will want one of its "third neighbors" to do this project, leading them to pick one of the other options. The winner could really be any of them, and the rumor mill says we'll find out by New Years Day.

Not Inner Mongolia

2009-10-21T19:31:00.007-04:00

Two fun little bits of news today.

Firstly, Xinjiang has apparently started importing coal from Mongolia [Xinhua]. That's right, Mongolia the country and not the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region. Anything Mongolia rips out of the ground will almost certainly be consumed in this way. The Southern Neighbor is the natural market for all of Mongolia's resources. My one concern with this is that Mongolia may be selling China the rope by which it will be hanged.

Secondly, and much more troubling, is the arrest of a Tibetan dissident and his family by Chinese police in Ulaanbaatar [Radio Free Asia and MonInfo]. Suckered in on false charges, with no recourse to the Mongolian legal system, and deported immediately, including a child.

It's one thing to arrest someone wanted in a foreign country and deport them in line with your own law. It's quite another to just sweep them out with hardly a moment's pause. I understand that it's dangerous for Mongolia to deny any of China's requests. I get that Mongolia must be under a whole lot of pressure to do what China wants or face terrible consequences. I just wish it didn't have to be this way.

Poll Bonanza

2009-10-20T08:06:00.002-04:00

A few dozen poll results from the Sant Maral Foundation are up over at MonInfo with no analysis and a lot of numbers.

[Part I]
[Part II]

I have a lot of other things I need to do today, so I can't dissect the results in detail, but if you're interested in Mongolian public opinion on almost any subject even a little, you'll probably find something to read there. Many of the polls are even broken down into the Ulaanbaatar / Countryside split.

Based on two minutes of distracted context-free skimming, it appears that most Mongols are proud to be Mongols, most are generally satisfied with the current system of government, and most think that Mongolia's best potential partner is Russia. Furthermore, most people are at least somewhat interested in politics and are somewhat optimistic about their own futures.

Also, most Mongolians feel that Unemployment and the Standard of Living are the most important problems facing the country today. Mining came in at #5 with a much smaller percentage, just below Corruption.

I have to stop there, but as I said above, if you're at all interested in the country, you'll find something interesting in the polls.

Miners and the Lawyers who Love Them

2009-10-17T00:06:00.004-04:00

Over at (NOT Above the Law) Law Shucks, there's a rundown of Linklaters's involvement in the wacky, wonderful mining sector.

It's not strictly on topic, but Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, and the China espionage scandal come up, so I thought a few of you might want to give it a read.

Russian Transit

2009-10-16T10:53:00.003-04:00

Starting next year, direct flights from Ulan-Ude to and from Ulaanbaatar will finally start. This project has been in the works since at least Summer of 2006 when I was in the Buryat Republic. At the time I was supposed to leave, the Ulan-Ude airport was closed on the grounds that it was being remodeled to support international travel. What that meant for me wast that I had to take a ten-hour bus ride to Irkutsk instead. Man, that was fun.

This is a big deal because air travel between these two cities, despite being comparatively close and culturally linked, has up until now required bizzare flight plans. Examples include going all the way to Moscow, Istanbul, or Vladivostok and Beijing on the way between. Whether this will become serious competition for the rail route is yet to be seen.

Speaking of railroads, despite the recent furious rant in Kommersant that depicted Russian Railroads as the victim of Mongolian treachery, that company is still making plans for close cooperation with the Mongolian government. Somehow, I don't think they'd do that if they were felling that betrayed.

Form is Void and Void is Form

2009-10-10T09:22:00.004-04:00

If you haven't seen what the Oyu Tolgoi agreement contains, the Mongolian Mining Journal has published a very detailed summary of the beast.

The core of an investment agreement is visible in the other name for such documents, "stability." Specifically, the corporations which form such agreements with the Mongolian Ulus pay steady predictable tax rates for the duration of the agreement. In this case, no matter what the Ikh Khural decides to do in the next fifty years, certain tax changes will simply not apply to the project in the realms of corporate income, customs duties, VAT, excises, royalties, exploration and mining license fees, and Immovable property or real estate. Moreover, Ivanhoe will be getting a tax break on certain expenditures/investments. The only way the tax terms might change, excepting direct amendment of the agreement, would be if future tax rules are more favorable to Ivanhoe.

However, in this particular agreement, taxation is only the tip of the iceberg. It covers almost everything conceivable from environmental concerns to training of locals to an arbitration clause stuck way at the end. Exactly how all this winds up being implemented, and then how successfully, remains to be seen, but at least on paper things are looking really darn good.

How Complex is Your Visa Regime?

2009-10-07T22:51:00.003-04:00

Three posts in one day? Why not!

Russia appears to be inching closer to a visa-free regime with Mongolia. [Official Site of the Government of the Buryat Republic]*

Americans can enter Mongolia visa-free. Mongolians can enter China the same way, and I suspect (though I don't know for sure) that this is true for their trips to Russia too. Soon, it may be that only citizens of third nations will need visas when crossing the Russo-Mongolian border.

In the context of the wider mining/debt/railroads spat, I suppose this is a positive sign. If the Buryat government is confident enough in the future of Russo-Mongolian ties to post such a thing on its official website, then perhaps Russia is just blustering. Why push away someone to whom you're planning to draw closer?

Alternatively, maybe President Nagovitsyn just missed the memo.

I know I'd much prefer the former.

*To remind everyone, the Buryat Republic is an ethnic "autonomous" region in Russia which both borders Mongolia and is home to a few hundred thousand members of an ethnicity very closely related to the Khalkha.

More Oyu Tolgoi News

2009-10-07T19:37:00.004-04:00

1) Mongolia-Web has an article about the specific significance of October 6th in Tibeto-Mongolian Buddhism. This year, the "deities" (which I put in quotes because I suspect this is a western misconception about the precise role of these entities in the religion) of wealth/prosperity and energy/cheerfulness had their one annual guaranteed good-news meeting on the 6th. Wealth, Prosperity, Energy, and Cheerfulness. Can you get any better than that? Or more appropriate for a multi-bajillion-dollar investment project?

2) The leadership of Ivanhoe and Rio-Tinto got to do a lot of feel-good back-patting in a very official context yesterday. The Director-General of the latter promised "to carry out safe and environmentally-friendly operations for people and future of Mongolia." Now you guys get to live up to that!

3) The Director of the ACMS, Brian White, weighs in on the signing with a good deal of optimism but also with a healthy amount of caution and circumspection. Many bad consequences could arise from this project, ranging from water misuse to economic refugee-ism and perhaps even war. I would add to that list the specters of official corruption, chemical spillage, worsened desertification, and Lord knows what else.

Surely, the signing is a good thing for Mongolia's economy on the whole, over the long view. What it will mean for the country's people themselves is still unknown. Now that the thing has finally been signed after an age-long wait, we're back to wait and see.

Russia Demands Mongolian Debt

2009-10-07T13:32:00.002-04:00

Just one day after Mongolia "gave away" the "promised to Russia" Oyu Tolgoi site "to the Chinese," Russia is now demanding the return of most (if not all) of Mongolia's debt to its northern neighbor [link here].

That site references a BBC story which connects the two events, but I'm having trouble finding that article. If one of you have seen it, pass it along to me, eh?

Of course, we have no proof at all that the two events are linked. Post hoc ergo propter hoc is crappy logic. However, the timing is more than suspicious.

Russia is evening threatening to bring up the debt issue at the next meeting of the Paris Club of creditors if it's not "resolved" right away. I would hope the Paris Club would see this issue for the laughable farce that it is, but if Russia's brazen enough to try bullying its neighbor like this, then maybe the Paris Club will be dumb enough to buy it.

Everyone who thought, or like me hoped, that the Great Game was over: it looks like it's just getting started.

That's More Like It

2009-10-06T18:54:00.002-04:00

There's more press out there on the signing of the OTIA.

Facts and predictions vary, but the general consensus is that Mongolia has struck the motherload, literally and figuratively. Here's hoping for a bright future.

Did That Really Just Happen

2009-10-06T08:00:00.009-04:00

Something as momentous as the signing of the Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement and the most common headline seems to be Rio Tinto says Signs Mongolia Mine Agreement (emphasis added).

I was hoping for a little more cheering and fanfare, maybe a rave in the streets. I guess that was too much to ask for.

Thankfully the Sydney Morning Herald was a little more enthusiastic, tossing around predictions about absurdly huge economic growth for Mongolia as the mine gets going over the next few years.

I expect the following to happen in the next decade as a result of this agreement:

Economic growth in Mongolia on a scale close to, if not exactly like, that predicted in the Herald.
At least two major environmental degradation scandals. If Mongolia stands to loose anything by mining on this scale, it's the pristine environment in much of the country.
At least one major labor dispute, like the Boroo Gold strike earlier this year. With thousands of jobs and millions to billions of dollars of income involved, someone's going to have a grievance at some point.

The signing is a great thing, to be sure, but it's not all smooth sailing from here.

Also, the Herald article had this neat little bit of geopolitical context:

Late last month, Moscow and Ulan Bator agreed to form a joint venture to exploit the Dornod uranium deposit during a visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. And China is planting oil rigs in the east of the country.

Check out where all that oil actually is [link here]. Yep, it's in Dornod.

The Canadians have planted their flag in the Gobi. But the Russians and Chinese are staking claims in Dornod. The USSR fought and defeated Japan there over fifty years ago. I wonder if we're not heading for a sequel.

Saber-Rattling

2009-10-02T12:40:00.004-04:00

For months on end, Mongolia flew under the radar in the Russian internet media, excepting when Medvedev or Putin stop by.

And then today, the Russian Internet freaks out claiming that Mongolia has betrayed its benevolent northern neighbor. Check out these headlines:

Mongolia Gives Away Gold Deposit to Canadians

Mongolia Gives Away to Canadians Gold Deposit Promised to Russia

Mongolia Transfers to China Gold Deposit Promised to Russia

Mongolia Strips Russia of (its) Gold

Ho. Ly. Crap.

The paranoia-propaganda engine just kicked into overdrive. (Also, the first three of those articles derive their information from the last one, Russia's venerable paper Kommersant)

Factually, the articles have a number of things wrong:

1) The Oyu-Tolgoi deposit was never promised to Russia. Ever. It's been between Mongolia and Ivanhoe for over a decade now. I don't know where the "analyst from Deutsche Bank" that they cited got her information, but it's dead wrong.

2) The collapse of potential Russian acquisition of Oyu Tolgoi did not happen when Elbegdorj came to power, as the articles suggest. My understanding is that Russia never had a chance at Oyu-Tolgoi at all, under President Enkhbayar or anyone else.

3) Ivanhoe is not a "Chinese Interest." This is completely out of left field. A state-owned Chinese company is buying a tiny part of Rio Tinto, which is Ivanhoe's strategic partner at Oyu Tolgoi, but Ivanhoe itself is still entirely Canadian (with the exception of Garav Dondog, who rocks a sweet deel and 'stache in his photo there). Ivanhoe is incorporated in Canada, its leadership is Canadian, its largest interests are in Mongolia and Australia, and yet somehow it's supposed to be "connected with the highest leadership" of China. Could we have some evidence please?

4) The last delay of the Investment Agreement signing was not about "needing more time to translate it to English," at least as far as I know. This wasn't even the publicly given reason.

5) The Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement is not a "new" agreement! It's been around for over a decade!

6) The Oyu-Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi deposits were never ever ever signed over to Russian Railroads. The Russian media screwed up when it announced that last time, and it's screwing up this time too. Russian Railroads, in my understanding, has control over the railroads (imagine that!) which will connect the Oyu Tolgoi site to the rest of the world. That's all that they have. Those railroads aren't being built by "exclusively Chinese" companies either. They're being built by Russian Railroads. Even before Russian Railroads swooped in to enforce their (dubious) claim to those rail lines, they were being built with American funding. Sure, America's one of Russia's competitors in the Great Game, but the USA is not the PRC! Not even a little!

My God. What madness. I concede I don't live in Mongolia these days. I am not in touch with Mongolian government officials or Ivanhoe corporate people. I just read the news that's available to me, and what Kommersant has announced to the world is utterly at variance with everything I've read and heard over the last two years.

I used to respect Kommersant. Not so much anymore.

This kind of jingoistic alarmist propaganda, loaded with lies and yaksh*t, is very frightening to me. This is the kind of nonsense you usually see in Russian news about Georgia and Georgian news about Russia. Hopefully it stops here.

Happy Friday!

2009-10-01T17:38:00.003-04:00

I guess it's still Thursday, but I wanted to share this for the weekend anyway. A brief video of the deepest sounding Tibetan horn that I've ever heard:

Be sure to crank up the bass!

Turquoise October

2009-10-01T15:59:00.004-04:00

Now they're saying October 6th [Bloomberg] for Oyu Tolgoi. Yeah. Right.

And the rumor-mongering over Tavan Tolgoi is picking up speed too [Forbes]. Lord knows what'll happen with that one.

Heart Sutra

2009-09-30T17:19:00.004-04:00

Over at Killing the Buddha: "Breakin' It Down: A Meditation on Ass-Shaking."

Buddhism in South Korea. Only tangentially related, but it's a good read.

Drama, Bias, and Rants

2009-09-30T08:14:00.003-04:00

BusinessMongolia.com has retracted yesterday's story about the 11AM signing time, and affirmed that the date has been moved up a week.

That, however, is not so important.

What was more interesting to me was the commentary to the above-linked article. We get to see the opinions of "investor," "shareholder," "long-time expat" and a few others anonymous souls. These individuals could easily be a bunch of university students in a bar somewhere, but on the off-chance that they're actually who they say they are, then they've given the rest of the world some neat insight into how their community thinks.

The opinions expressed range from borderline-racist rage about voodoo doctors to a brief proposal about the effect of Communism on Mongolia's business practices.

But in almost every case, they blame Mongolian culture. What an easy answer this is... And surely, it must be true, for Westerners are never fickle, selfish, superstitious, or opaque, and they never procrastinate or say one thing and then do another. Especially when business and government must work together. We always do that quickly and correctly. Surely, it must be the culture.

Whatever.

The one poster who indicated that this delay is more about the current leadership's desire to show that it's in control probably had it right, in my view. At least, that is, before he drifted off into culture-land.

And for the record, I once had a trip to a monastery delayed to coincide with an auspicious Buddhist Calendrical date, and it turned out great. We had gorgeous weather and no crowds. Just sayin'.

Tonight, Tonight

2009-09-29T22:12:00.006-04:00

An anonymous source apparently "confirms" that the Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement signing will happen at 11AM Wednesday, September 30, 2009 (presumably Ulaanbaatar Time).

That would be sometime later tonight. I'm considering staying up a little later than normal to watch the interwebs, just in case.

This is the most precise estimate of a signing time that I have yet to see, which makes me think it just might be serious, despite the anonymity of the source.

As usual, wait and see.

EDIT: An angry commenter on the linked site is claiming that the signing has been postponed until October 6th, which is apparently "an auspicious day" in the Tibetan Buddhist Calendar. At this point, I'm just reporting absurd gossip, so I'm going to give up for the night.

Toloo

2009-09-26T17:53:00.007-04:00

I gather that this song's title means (EDIT: Not at all what I thought it did, probably more like "For", thanks for the correction!) Other than that I have no idea what it's about.

But to be fair, when your video has a crowd in the ger districts, lamas, shamans, soldiers, Chinggis Khaan, President Elbegdorj, and a big frackin' tank, who cares what the words are about?

Apologies in advance if the lyrics are actually in some way massively offensive.

Also, fair warning, the video only starts around 1:10. Everything before that is an explanation of something I didn't understand and a dedication (I think) to the now venerable Mongolian rap group Lumino.

And now, the video:

EDIT #2: Now a few hours later, watching it again, I paused the video at a few points toward the end, and it looks like there are still shots of the 2008 Riot spliced in. Can someone out there tell me what the song's about, and how that might be relevant?

Monday

2009-09-26T12:33:00.002-04:00

This time they're saying the OT agreement will be signed on Monday. Thus spoke Elbegdorj.

If anyone knows, I would hope he would. Though in that same article, Ivanhoe did decline to comment, and usually they take every opportunity to proclaim unto Heaven that Lo, it is coming, and soon.

I admit I'm being a tad irreverent about a very serious business, but I am consistently amazed and perplexed at how all the involved parties have maintained such a high degree of enthusiasm for this project despite more than a decade of delays. I guess when there's a literal gold mine on the line then it must be easier to stay positive.

Drive-By Shooting in Chita

2009-09-25T16:31:00.003-04:00

This one's a bummer.

A Chita-Region car-salesman was gunned down "in broad daylight" yesterday. Boris Putintsev, in addition to having a curious surname, was a former member of SPS in the Chita Oblast' Duma some years ago. (For the uninitiated, the SPS or Union of Rightist Forces was a liberal-ish opposition party in Russia up until last year when it gave up.) Boris's brother, and business partner, Sergei died in a traffic accident in a nerighboring region back in May. The criminal investigation into Sergei's death, if I read the article right, was apparently connected with his brother's business dealings.

That same article article also reminds the reader about the ongoing search for a businessman-legislator from Kirov who recently disappeared.

Ugh. The automatic western-media-reflex would probably be to announce the erosion of the Russian state and a return to the horrid chaos of the mid-90s. As usual, I'd be more hesitant, but this is still not good.

It's always shady when opposition politicians, even former ones, die violent deaths. Even if this is just a business thing gone massively wrong, the last thing Russia needs to bring back is "cowboy capitalism" or a widespread mafioso way of life.

This Time Totally Tomorrow For Real Guys

2009-09-24T08:17:00.004-04:00

We've heard all of this before, and until I see a picture either of the signed document or of the PM in the act of signing it, I will continue to be skeptical.

And in case my sarcasm is too opaque, various media outlets have been screaming all week that the Oyu Tolgoi stability agreement is "just about to be signed." Normally I wouldn't bother posting about this, except that they're reaching a fever-pitch of expectation that I have not seen before in the two/three years since I started paying attention. As usual, wait and see.

Kiva

2009-09-19T10:52:00.005-04:00

I just heard about it this morning, but apparently Kiva.org is some kind of multinational online microfinance project for small businesses. [Wiki Link Here]

What makes this relevant here is that Xac Bank just got involved with it. In theory, one can now use it to sponsor businesses in Mongolia. If you're interested, go check it out. If you use it for a Mongolian project, let me know how that goes. That is, if you don't mind telling me.

Ramblings from Elsewhere

2009-09-14T16:10:00.003-04:00

Robert Amsterdam has two posts today that touch on things Altaic:

1) The Retreat of the Russian Language, drawing on a New York Times piece (link here) detailing varying attitudes towards the Russian tongue in former Soviet countries. I has this to add about Mongolia's recent linguistic past:

You could add Mongolia to that graphic, probably in the "Mixed Feelings" category, even though it's not technically an FSU country.

Russian is not an official language there, but most people older than 20 in Ulaanbaatar know at least a few words and much of Parliament (including the Prime Minister) is fluent in it, as are most (if not all) of the Presidents to date. There are also at least two Russian-language newspapers published in the capital city, "Монгольские Новости," a state publication, and the privately-owned "Монголия Сегодня." (If it ever becomes important, I found the latter to be a much better paper.)

Regarding linguistic nationalism, in the early 90s the Parliament (under then-PM and now-President Elbegdorj) moved to drastically scale back Russian-language education and replace it with English. There was also talk of reverting the language back to either the Latin script or the Classical Mongolian writing system (the one used in Inner Mongolia). As of today, Russian language education has been drastically scaled back, but neither of the other two initiatives have really gone anywhere due to lack of funding.

2) A brief discussion of race-relations and Giant Lenin Heads in the Buryat Republic, from true/slant's Joshua Kucera (link here). I had two anecdotes to add:

During my 2006 summer in Ulaan-Ude I saw Potselui Babochki in a crowded theater. At one point in the film a character goes on at length about how Russian and Asian peoples and cultures are incompatible. This drove most of the theatergoers to uncontrolled laughter, especially the many interracial couples in the room. No one was able to take the film seriously after that. Another time I happened to be present for a small-scale local Evenki culture festival. An inebriated Russian man yelled at them, asking if they were (American) Indians. Some bystanders then expressed their dismay at this man who was "probably from European Russia."

I would strongly recommend reading both the NYT piece and the True/Slant article. Especially the latter, though both are good reads.

Mongolian Bling

2009-09-13T21:53:00.006-04:00

It's a soon-to-be documentary. I don't even know where to begin.

I used to be really critical of Mongol rap, and then I came around.

These days I feel that Mongolian hip hop, Mongol Rap, steppe-urban-turbo-folk, or whatever you call it, comprehensively encapsulates the challenges and near-paradoxes facing the modern Ulus. It doesn't even have to be good. The genre's mere existence is enough.

Rather than fumblingly trying to forge a profound statement on Mongolia's future out of development-theory cliches and fancy words, I'll just ask you to watch the trailer and let me know what you think:

NPR on Mongolia

2009-09-08T17:51:00.003-04:00

National Public Radio, America's psuedo-state-supported domestic radio station, is doing a series of pieces this week on "Mongolia in Transition."

NPR's reporting is generally hard to match for quality on just about anything and everything, and in this specific case I feel they're doing a spectacular job. They're hitting many significant points about the pros and cons of mining in Mongolia, as well as the often overlooked truth that economic downturns hit the poorest of the poor the hardest. As much as American auto-manufacturers and their factory workers will rightly complain about their situation, their plight is still luxurious when compared to that of a Ninja Miner or a small-scale herder.

My only gripe is with the title of the series: Mongolia has been in 'transition' for almost twenty years now. Do you have to be accepted into the EU/NATO or turn Putinist for 'transition' to end? I might say this is a thickly-veiled hint that Mongolia's transition will end only when it finally gets the big mining projects going, but that would be just a little paranoid. At least, I think so.

Anyway, NPR does good. Go read. (Or just wait for Thursday's happier piece on the "Hip-Hop Steppe.")

(And for non-Americans wary of state-run broadcasting, NPR is very much unlike Voice of America. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.)

Not There Yet

2009-08-31T20:01:00.004-04:00

Just a quick note on an (the?) important issue.

A whole lot of laws have just recently been amended in Mongolia, with the intention of making the country more friendly to big foreign mining interests.

I don't think any of these changes were absolutely necessary for the passage of the OT Investment Agreement, as the very nature of such agreements allows for exemptions from existing taxes and regulations, but that's what a lot of MPs and mining exec's are apparently claiming so maybe I'm wrong.

At any rate, my point is that the actual agreement has not yet been signed. We've all heard this "we're almost there" bit before, so as usual, I won't believe it's almost done until it's been signed, stamped, and sent to press. I'm suddenly more optimistic about the OT agreement than I have been in ages, but I'm still not convinced.

Closing the Circle

2009-08-24T20:12:00.004-04:00

(A caveat: I get a little riled up at a few points in this epic-length post, so excuse me for my internet-angst, and please remember both that opinions expressed herein are my own and should not be construed as reflecting those of anything else that I might ever be affiliated with, and that any translation blunders found here should be laid at my feet and mine only. Thanks, and enjoy!)

As you might have guessed by my very long absence from this site, I've been a little distracted lately. In the last two months, I have moved, started school again, and otherwise drastically reorganized my life. As a result, I simply have not had enough time to ramble on the internet about things Mongolic, Altaic, or otherwise just plain fun.

With that in mind, I must say that I do not know whether I will be updating this site much in the future. I may go on another hiatus (closing the circle begun with the last one), or I may say something snarky about President Dmitry Medvedev's impending visit to Mongolia. I do not yet know. (I wish all I wanted to say about his visit was "Слава ветеранам Халхин-Гола!," but in light of the railroad mess, I'm just too cynical now.)

Too much has happened in Mongolia the last few weeks for me to summarize it all here. I'll just say that things always do trickle through somewhere, eventually.

At any rate, in the event that I do go away for a while, I wouldn't want to leave without some parting words. So here they are:

On Inner Mongolia:

There are those who want you to believe that sacrificing democracy and human rights for economic development is a fair trade. This sentiment will sometimes even show up in the most innocent forms in the most unlikely of places. In support of this theory, the disgraceful actions of the West towards their own conquered peoples are often cited. My message for Inner Mongolia, and I suppose for Tibet and Xinjiang as well, would be that yes, the "West" has sinned. The West has sinned time and time again, both against its own minorities and against your adopted motherland. This does not excuse the mistakes of others. Your motherland does some things right, like building a truly impressive network of wind-power stations in the wind-swept steppe. Your motherland also does a good many things wrong. I do not have to say what they are, or even surreptitiously provide links. These things you already know. And some things, you may soon learn through harsh experience. Just don't believe anyone who says that the evil acts of others justify their own.

On Buryaad-Mongolia:

While certain of your officials wallow in corruption, your Sangha debases itself.

Firstly, I find it absurd that Lama Ayusheev would seek to give the title of White Tara to Dmitry Medvedev. This title (ever so inaccurately described in the Russian media as a "revered Buddhist deity") was reserved explicitly in Siberian Buddhism to the Tsars and Tsarinas of the Russian Empire. Dmitry Medvedev, honorable though he may be, is not the Emperor. It was wise of him to reject the offer, it was foolish and sycophantic of the Sangha leadership to try to award it to him. No one will ever again wear that crown.

Secondly, and even more discouraging, is this tidbit from Lama Ayusheev's speech in Medvedev's presence:

Мы считаем, что буддисты должны помогать той стране, где мы живем – своей любимой стране, и в тот же момент должны помогать своим верующим: то есть не создавать проблем, служить верно, не создавать никаких особых условий и не требовать взамен что-либо от руководства страны.

In translation:

We feel that Buddhists should help that country where we live, our beloved country, and at this very moment we should help our own believers: That is, to not create problems, to serve reliably, to not create any sort of special conditions and to not demand in return anything from the leadership of the country.

Apparently, the Traditional Buddhist Sangha of Russia is operating in a different world than the Sangha of Burma, or the Sangha of Tibet. Perhaps Lama Ayusheev is subtly trying to warn the faithful away from the road to ruin, but in doing so he comes across as a mere sycophant. Do not agitate for change, do not advocate autonomy, do not trouble your benevolent leaders in any thing ever at all, he seems to say.

Sure, Agvan Dorjiev saw the Russian Empire as one possible protector and savior of his faith, but ultimately that state failed him, and he was murdered by its successor. And now that successor's successor is letting its enforcers open anyone's mail on the most flimsy of grounds and turning a blind eye while human rights workers are murdered. I suspect Agvan Dorjiev would probably warn Lama Ayusheev from getting too cozy with any state at all, even his beloved old Empire.

I do not mean to imply that monks taking to the street and torching themselves or piles of tires is what I want to see. Far from it. I'm just saddened that the best Russia's Sangha has to present to the people and the President is a kowtowing call to inaction. Was finally getting Buddhist chaplains into the army really worth this? The Buryat and Russian peoples can do better than this. Given time, I know they will. But this? This is sad.

(On the bright side, at least Medvedev's Ulan-Ude trip generated some awesome pictures, right?)

On Tyva and Kalmykia:

Business as usual. Corruption and poverty continue to run rampant. At least the Dalai Lama might be stopping by?

On the Mongolian State itself:

Oyu and Tavan Tolgoi. They linger. Still. In letting these things and other things stagnate, the Ulus, I humbly submit, is holding itself back from greatness.

However, there may yet be wisdom in this approach. I do not refer to the advice of "leading economists." They crashed your economy once before, and may be prone to do so again. Instead, I mean that taking the time to get it right, putting in the work to find a solution pleasing to everyone, finding a proper compromise, these are noble endeavors. Even more noble is your defense of freedom for your citizens while Mongolic peoples to the north and south of you languish in endless tragic comedies of corruption and exploitation.

These are all good things. I would just warn you, do not wait forever. If you wait too long, and Rio and the rest will eventually surrender their hopes and leave. As profit-driven, environmentally unfriendly, and cold-hearted as "Western" companies can be and all too often are, I fear that you will find the state-owned megacorps of your first and second neighbors to be infinitely worse.

In sum: Hang on to your people's freedom. Freedom both from the State and from others. But do not wait too long on the natural resources issue. Your freedoms may ultimately hinge on it.

And that's that. I might soon come back to say more things, I might be gone for a long time. Now, I cannot say. Баяртай may turn out to be inappropriate. Instead, I'll just say 'пока.'

Ger District

2009-07-14T13:27:00.004-04:00

The UB Post has a decent article up about Ulaanbaatar's ger districts and what initial steps are being taken in the private and public sectors to better the lives of their inhabitants.

The article is a quick read and worth checking out, especially if you live in UB.

Nagovitsyn and Buryat Religion

2009-07-14T12:51:00.003-04:00

The President of the Buryat Republic has taken it upon himself to get directly involved in the affairs of the two largest "traditional" faiths in that region.

On the one hand, he is promising a total renovation of Ivolginskii Datsan, widely regarded as the "capital of the traditional Buddhist sangha of Russia."

On the other, it was him specifically who recently asked Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kiril to grant the Republic its own eparchy (diocese).

I can see why the State might want to get involved with renovation at Ivolginsk. The monastery and surrounding area definitely have the potential to become a major tourist attraction, and promoting opportunities for investment in the Republic is just the sort of thing a Republican President should do. Moreover, the sangha in Buryatiya, for better or for worse, is a predominantly ethnic-Buryat community, and Russia's ethnic republics are at least in theory supposed to nurture the culture of their "titular ethnicity." Both of these things are goals that ethnic-republic leaders should strive for.

Also, regarding the establishment of a new eparchy, a successful appeal might increase the Republic's prestige and that of its clergy. It also might spur the construction of new churches, the creation of new offices and in both cases the resultant creation of new jobs.

Still, would it not be better to leave questions of administrative expansion up to the church itself? Perhaps instead lobbying local church officials to request such an elevation from within? I suppose that as a nominal member of the Orthodox faithful, President Nagovitsyn does have the same rights as any other lay orthodox to request things of his church, but the large soapbox he has at his disposal is supposed to be at least formally secular. Even promising support for infrastructure renewal at Ivolginskii Datsan risks blurring the lines between church and state.

I don't see either of these initiatives as particularly sinister, just as a bit sloppy and incautious.

Elbegdorj Inauguration Speach

2009-07-13T15:42:00.002-04:00

The Mongolian Mining Journal has posted an English-language translation of one of President Elbegdorj's inauguration speeches. He comes across as both optimistic and very much aware of the wide array of challenges currently facing Mongolia. Whatever you think of him, it's worth a read.

Oyu Tolgoi Details

2009-07-12T10:24:00.003-04:00

Most of you have probably already seen them, but Brian over at ACMS has collected details of the current version of the Oyu Tolgoi agreement from Mongolian-language newspapers and posted them.

There's no need for me to re-post the whole list of details here, since Brian's posts are well organized and in English too. In sum, there are a great whopping lot of taxes to be paid, Mongolia will retain a share in the project, the initial agreement will last for 30 years, and after four years 90% of the project's employees must be Mongolian, many trained abroad on Ivanhoe's dime.

Perhaps this isn't the most pro-Mongolia version of the agreement ever to be penned, but it's a whole lot better than either the stagnation of the last several years or having no public involvement at all in a project this important.

Supposedly it was going to be submitted to the Ikh Khural last Friday, but I haven't heard whether it passed, or if it even got to the floor for a vote. It's my understanding that Naadam has already started, so that's at least one rumor invalidated.

Russian Sources and Leanings

2009-07-10T20:53:00.002-04:00

I know this post isn't strictly about Mongolia or Mongolic-Peoples, but there's a graphic going around grouping various Russia commentators into different categories along the axes of views on Russia and views on "the West."

I only mention it because I have linked to a couple of those guys before on this blog. Whether you agree with the categorization of a given source is up to you, but it's always good to know what sorts of biases and perceived biases may be coming with a given link.

Trouble in Altai

2009-07-10T15:42:00.003-04:00

I wouldn't normally post here about an incident wherein Russian protesters had a confrontation with Russian riot-breakers, but this one happened very close to the Mongolian border.

Apparently a bunch of workers on the M-52 Highway, which is intended to someday connect the Siberian industrial center of Novosibirsk with Mongolia (though which currently only goes so far as the town of Aktash, according to Google Maps) decided they were going to protest bad conditions. This worked for disgruntled factory workers in Pikalevo, in European Russia, as they attracted the attention of Prime Minister Putin who quite publicly flipped out at the factory's owners.

The workers in Altai, however, got a facefull of OMON instead. Paul Goble, as usual, seems to think an apocalyptic showdown between Russia's government and people is on the horizon. As usual, I'm not so convinced (perhaps rightly, perhaps wrongly). But if it did happen, that would make yet another region neighboring Mongolia marred by riots and chaos.

In that case, Mongolia would become not only an "island of democracy" but perhaps an "island of stability" as well.

The last time Mongolia was the only calm place in a sea of fire, a guy remembered by history as "The Mad Baron" decided to move there. That would not be a chapter of history anyone would want to repeat.

Five-Nation Festival

2009-07-09T11:57:00.002-04:00

The 70th Anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol will be observed in September in five different countries.

However, the battle only had four belligerents, so what's going on here?

Of the four original combatants, Japan is no longer an Empire, Mongolia is no longer a People's Republic, Manchuko is totally gone, and the USSR has broken up.

Of the countries marking the battle, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia are all former members of the USSR, and to varying degrees still honor its memory deeply. Post-imperial Japan and post-communist Mongolia are also observing the occasion. This leaves three USSR successor states and two original participants.

As for original participant number four, China does not appear to be marking the event, probably planning to just cover its ears and pretend Manchuko never existed.

Dalai Lama Returning To Russia?

2009-07-08T16:35:00.005-04:00

It's more likely than not, says an Ulan-Ude Buddhist leader.

Apparently, the official stance of the Russian Foreign Ministry, since January of this year, is that "no insurmountable obstacles" remain to his visit, and that the Ministry "is ready to review the possibility of his pastoral/ministerial visit to Russia in 2009."

His last visit was in 2004, to Kalmyikiya, and he has apparently not yet made it to Buryatiya (a fact which I think I knew at some point but forgot), so a visit this year would be a big deal of Russia's Buddhist community.

However, despite the Ministry's public willingness, some concrete obstructions do remain, according to the above article. On the one hand, a visit by a global-level VIP would be expensive for the host region, and the Buryat Republican government is not exactly awash in spare funds this year. On the other, the PRC always fumes when His Holiness goes anywhere that isn't Dharamsala.

However, the politics surrounding a Dalai Lama visit to Russia would inevitably get wrapped up in President Medvedev's planned visit to Mongolia this September for the 70th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. Denying a visa to His Holiness and then trying to visit Mongolia would be something akin to Gordon Brown denying the Pope a visa and then trying to visit Italy. It would be awkward at best.

Moreover, I would not be surprised that if the Dalai Lama does visit Ulan-Ude then he would also make a stop in Mongolia, since it is right next door and home to many more Tibetan Buddhist faithful. If, as a result, Medvedev and the Dalai Lama were in Ulaanbaatar at the same time, would they meet?

I do not expect modern Russia to re-assume the Empire's curious role in Tibetan politics, but I do expect the Dalai Lama issue will complicate further Russia's relationship with China on some level.

Correction: I misunderstood the above linked article. The Dalai Lama has visited Buryatiya, and even Tyva, before, it's just been almost twenty years since the last time he was in that part of Russia.

Oyu Tolgoi Almost There?

2009-07-08T11:49:00.003-04:00

Ivanhoe is saying that both Mongolian political parties have signed off on the Oyu Tolgoi stability agreement. The agreement then goes to the full Ikh Khural, supposedly on Friday. That latter article indicates 10 parliamentarians are already openly opposed to the agreement while an equal number are openly for it. That makes up less than one-third of the whole body so this thing isn't completely over yet. At the same time, public opposition appears to be small (at the moment).

Friday will be a big day for this project, one way or another.

More Dalai Lama Birthday Things

2009-07-07T18:01:00.003-04:00

The July 6th holiday did get a good deal of observance in Buryatiya after all, involving a long celebration at a theater Ulan-Ude attended by a number of officials, governmental, religious, academic, and otherwise.

His Holiness has also been invited to attend an academic conference entitled "Science and Buddhism" in Ulan-Ude in September.

On the one hand, the Russian state is completely fine with China's various policies in Tibet. On the other, its officials attend the Dalai Lama's birthday celebrations and the state lets His Holiness visit occasionally. Russia walks a curious middle ground on this one.

Xinjiang Burning

2009-07-07T13:50:00.004-04:00

Urumqi is having a really bad week. As one might expect, passions are greatly inflamed on both sides (especially see the comments). The protests/riots/chaos has apparently been spreading to other cities and becoming more violent as time goes by.

This marks the second Chinese region neighboring Mongolia in two years to go up in flames, as Gansu Province saw riots in last year's Tibetan unrest. Apparently it's not just Uyghurs and Han Chinese but also Kazakhs and other ethnic groups involved in the violence.

Just like last time, the PRC is blaming foreigners for their problems, and yet demanding that no foreigners take part in the solutions. My suspicion is that this, like Tibet, is a homegrown mess that China will have to solve on its own.

At any rate, I do not expect this to spread to Inner Mongolia, which hasn't seen serious anti-Beijing disturbance since the Japanese occupation back in the 1940s.

As for Mongolia the Country, it perhaps wisely chose the realist route when Tibet went into convulsions last year, and will probably do the same this time around. If so, then I would expect Mongolia to publicly support whatever crackdown the PRC embarks on. That is, unless Kazakhs of Mongolian Citizenship are found to be among the rioters. That would make things more complicated.

Aga Autonomous

2009-07-06T13:11:00.003-04:00

Paul Goble has an article up discussing the question of autonomy in the former Buryat Autonomous Regions of Ust-Orda and Aga-Buryat.

I don't know as much about either region as I would like, but it is interesting to point out what Goble sees as a primary difference between the two: Aga-Buryat has actually managed to retain a comparatively great deal of autonomy unlike Ust-Orda. Apparently the leaders of the latter have noticed this disparity between the two regions, who should hold equal levels of autonomy according to the law, and have begun "agitating" for more.

Moreover, Aga-Buryat appears to be unique among similar recently-subsumed regions across Russia.

I don't think this necessarily "points to more trouble ahead for Putin’s plan," as Goble apparently does, but I will be interested to see whether Aga-Buryat's model becomes the norm in the long run or if that region falls into line with the others.

Ilyumzhinov - Happy July 6th!

2009-07-06T12:58:00.002-04:00

Today is the birthday of His Holiness the XIV Dalai Lama. Kalmyk President Kirsan Ilyumzhinov (perhaps better known for other reasons) marked the day with a special ceremony in the Elista Khural and a much better-documented distribution of awards in his own office.

Mr. Ilyumzhinov (whose website now describes him as the "Head of the Kalmyk Republic," notably omitting the word President) is certainly a strange fellow for his exploits in the chess world, among other things. However, I'm still glad to see at least someone in Russia marking the holiday.

More Oyu Tolgoi Rumors

2009-07-06T12:53:00.003-04:00

The rumor mill, apparently now including the Mongolian media, continues to speculate that the Oyu Tolgoi stability agreement will be finalized in the very near future.

At the same time, Prime Minister Bayar deflects criticism that his Grand Coalition government is dragging its feet, instead indicating that on an issue of such massive importance it is better to have such a bipartisan government.

On the agreement, once again, I'll believe it when I see it.

On Bayar's comments, however, I'm inclined to agree. If this thing goes well, both parties will be happy to claim credit for it, and will almost certainly have to acknowledge their opponent's role. If it goes badly, neither party will escape unscathed. This gives them a great deal of incentive to work together and reach some kind of working compromise.

Maybe for real this time perhaps?

2009-07-02T19:38:00.002-04:00

Ivanhoe is apparently tingling with anticipation over "talk" that the Oyu Tolgoi stability agreement will be finalized before mid-July.

For anyone not using the same calendars I am, that means it will supposedly be finished in the next two-three week.

Right.

If it happens, that'll be great, but once again, I'll believe it when I see it.

Money in Buryatiya

2009-06-30T16:49:00.004-04:00

As Zabaikal'skii Krai (formerly Chita Oblast') plunges headfirst into the mining world, Buryatiya wonders when its turn to milk the cash cow will come.

Also, the Buryat President, Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn, has made his income public.

President Nagovtsyn earns 3,767,800 rubles per year. At the current exchange rate (as of June 30 09, one ruble equals .03207 dollars), that comes out to about 120,827 dollars per year. In a country where the GDP per capita was to between ten and twenty thousand dollars last year, that makes President Nagovtsyn a very rich man. He's no Roman Abramovich, but he's still quite well-to-do. He also owns an apartment in Tomsk, but not in Buryatiya, and his wife owns another along with about two-thousand square kilometers of land. He drives a Lexus RXX330, and his wife drives a Daewoo Matiz. Not exactly Volga fans, these two.

It's not unusual for the rich to run the political show. But Buryatiya is one of the poorer regions in Russia, and its leader is driving a Lexus.

Tyvan Corruption Fight

2009-06-30T12:39:00.002-04:00

Eight people have been sentenced for corruption in Tyva over the last half-year.

Whether this means the fight against corruption is generally going well in Tyva is hard to say. At least something is happening.

Oyu Tolgoi Changes

2009-06-30T12:23:00.003-04:00

Apparently the OT Stability Agreement is indeed being amended like mad. Supposedly this was done in consultation with Ivanhoe, Rio, and Ivanhoe Canada, and it's now about to leave committee and go the the Ikh Khural. If that's the case, then this whole thing actually could be resolved by Naadam. I'm still a bit skeptical that it will happen that quickly, but if it did...

That would be astounding, for a number of reasons. Far and away primarily, Mongolia's economy would get a huge short-and-long-term boost. As a distant second, concerns over President Elbegdorj's supposed populist-obstructionism would become even more groundless than they already are. Moreover, if the MPRP leads the charge to finalize Oyu Tolgoi (as appears to be the case in the above-linked article) it would demonstrate at least some MPRP resilience to what is percieved as external Russian political pressure.

All the political squabbling and media/corporate name-calling aside, getting Oyu Tolgoi finalized and in full production would be a great victory for the Mongolian People.

Of course, that's assuming the State spends/invests its new funds wisely. That is a entirely different challenge.

Before Naadam

2009-06-28T12:46:00.003-04:00

Supposedly the Oyu Tolgoi Stability Agreement just might be signed and stamped before Naadam.

In my view, I'll believe it when I see it. We've heard this kind of thing before.

More Vote-Stealing in Buryatiya

2009-06-25T17:32:00.003-04:00

Two bureaucrats, one of them actually a (former) candidate for the office in question, have been called out by the Russian Federal Procuracy for forging documents and, in one case, also for falsifying the results of an election.

Both of these officials are very low-level. The first, Galina Andriyevich (whose surname curiously does not follow normal Russian gender-rules), is accused of falsifying signatures on a pre-election petition for candidacy. This accusation is apparently backed up by handwriting analysis. Oops.

The other is the chair of the electoral committee of a raion, and is accused of falsifying documents for "candidates to the position of head of the rural settlement of Argada in Kurumanskyi Raion.

Adding these two to the case of Nadezhda Nikolayeva, all three individuals are female low-level bureaucrats.

I wonder if anyone has been tracking this sort of thing in Russia for a longer period of time. Based on this incredibly small and unrepresentative sample, it looks like female low-level bureaucrats are being made scapegoats for a nationally endemic problem. I hope that's just sampling error.

What's More Important than Gold?

2009-06-25T15:43:00.007-04:00

Water.

It may because I just finished re-reading Frank Herbert's Dune (which may be the best Science Fiction novel ever), but whatever the cause I have water on the brain today.

And wouldn't you know it, there was an article over at business-mongolia.com yesterday talking about how Ulaanbaatar's ger district residents on average pay 84 times more per liter of water than do mining companies.

There could be many reasons for this. Perhaps the mining companies have better access to natural sources, being off in the countryside. Perhaps regional (as opposed to capital-city) authorities charge less for water. Maybe in the City, there's a minimum monthly amount charged for water services that inflates the per-liter figure. Or, perhaps the miners use far more water and get some kind of bulk rate on the stuff. In any case, I do not know the actual reason, and the situation strikes me as more than a little unfair.

I would expect water to be more expensive in poorly planned parts of a big city than in the countryside. I would not expect it to be 84 times more expensive. We can't say that the State is giving mining firms special treatment, at least without knowing what the average rural-settlement citizen pays for water, as well as what the average Ulaanbaatar-bound foreign-investment-firm pays, and generally a lot of other important pieces of data. Still, I'd bet ger-district residents, and probably all of Ulaanbaatar, would like to know why the disparity exists.

Moreover, according to that article apartment-dwellers in UB use between 31 and 45 times as much water per day than do ger-dwellers. This calls to mind the income-inequality cited as Mongolia's biggest challenge to overcome by President Elbegdorj in his recent Al-Jazeera interview. On the one hand, this is probably a cyclical thing. Ger-district-dwellers can afford less water so they might intentionally find ways to use less. On the other, it's an issue of luxuries. Apartment dwellers use their sinks, showers, and flush-toilets almost quite often, and the liters can pile up quickly. At any rate, the higher rate of consumption of apartment-dwellers probably reflects a much higher average income.

For still more contrast, going along with the idea of income inequality, the average apartment-dwelling Mongolian family apparently uses 250-450 liters per day. I have no idea how many people are included in such an "average" such family. Whatever that number is, the average American house-dwelling individual (not including outdoor usage) goes through about 260 liters per day. That's more than most families in all of Mongolia, and certainly far more than the average Mongolian citizen.

All this makes me want to buy a stillsuit.

But wait, there's more! As Mongolia develops, as the mining industry (eventually, probably) kicks into high gear, as nuclear plants (possibly) begin to crop up, and as its population continues its inexorable growth, water will become ever more important in Mongolia, and like all commodities, ever more expensive.

Add to this two more facts: 1) 20% of the world's unfrozen surface freshwater is just over Mongolia's north border in Lake Baikal, and 2) China, who needs more water than Mongolia will ever imagine, is beginning to grumble about Russia's "Great Northern Virgin Land" with an eye to appropriation.

Mongolia's southern neighbor needs a lot of water. Mongolia's northern neighbor has a lot of water just sitting there in the world's biggest lake. Mongolia's southern neighbor knows this and is beginning to plant the early seeds of propaganda.

I suspect that if Mongolia's geopolitical neighborhood becomes extremely unpleasant in the next century, it will likely be due to fights over water, rather than today's hot-button topics of uranium and oil.

Post-Communist Internationale

2009-06-25T12:27:00.004-04:00

The Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (MPRP / МАХН) was once a member of the Communist International. Thankfully that era is long past, and the MPRP is now just a member of the infinitely more benign and reasonable Socialist International.

Today however, the MPRP seems rather enthusiastic about re-establishing close relationships with leading parties in neighboring states. For the last several years it has been cultivating ties with Russia's United Russia party, which is led by Vladimir Putin. Then this week Mongolia saw two high-profile meetings between the MPRP leadership and high-ranking officials from the Communist Party of China and Kazakhstan's Nur-Otan party, headed by that country's President Nursultan Nazarbayev. In both of these latter cases the visits were largely intended to facilitate inter-party cooperation, rather than (or at least overshadowing) inter-state cooperation.

In and of themselves, the various inter-party meetings and exchanges are totally innocent. Even taken together, they are merely curious. But still, I have to wonder what the MPRP's goal is and whether the Democratic Party is doing anything similar. The part of me that wishes I had a tinfoil hat handy wants to think the MPRP is building some kind of Post-Communist International coalition to eventually use as a weapon against the Democrats. Of course, that would be pretty bizzare, especially considering the MPRP's post-1989 record of peacefully relinquishing power. I doubt that's the plan here.

But then, why bother with party-to-party contacts at all? What do you gain from that kind of cooperation except all-expenses-paid trips abroad? I suppose you also do get useful contacts at all levels of government, and from an individual standpoint you would get to do a lot of networking. But does it actually benefit the country or even the party? Does the Democratic Party do this kind of thing too? If so, do their stated reasons include anything less banal than "building inter-party relations"?

For Shame

2009-06-24T16:04:00.004-04:00

Why on Earth is Mongolia sending a delegation to the IWC conference?

Instead of wasting Mongolia's precious funds and time on something as absurdly irrelevant to the country as that, why not do something about human trafficking?

Talk about waste and skewed priorities.

Two More Mining Interviews

2009-06-23T15:01:00.003-04:00

As foretold in the previous post, the subject of this post is two interviews with Mongolian public figures (apparently not necessarily "officials," my mistake) on the ever-important subject of mining in Mongolia.

The first sets forth insight and opinion from Mr. S. Demberel, the Head of the "Chamber of Trade and Industry." From the article linked just there, it is unclear whether this Chamber is a government body or NGO. Mr. Demberel's two major points are these: 1) The Government is revisiting the idea of taking a "golden share" in major mining projects. This would mean that the government would hold one single share in a joint-venture, rather than an "authoritarian" proportion of shares like 33% or 50%. A golden share would allow the Government to retain a veto on issues of major importance, but would leave most of the value of the project in the hands of private investors. 2) Mongolia does not necessarily need massive and complicated legislation on joint ventures between the state and private concerns. In his view, Mongolia just needs good contracts. On the other hand, I [the author of this blog] imagine that a number of miners and investors out there would prefer to have detailed legislation that spells out exactly what is going on, rather than good contracts that never leave Parliament.

The other interview is with an Ulaanbaatar international-economist, Mr. D. Davaasambu. His interview is wide-ranging and covers everything from Chinalco's acquisition of a stake in Rio Tinto to Russia's role in the development (or lack thereof) of Mongolia's railroad network. It is too long for me to go through point-by-point here. Instead, I'll just say that I agree with the anonymous interviewer in doubting that Mongolia is actually the master of the UB Rail line. Mr. Davaasambu's implication that Mongolia is the true master of the line because Mongolians work on it is enormously naiive. He makes a good number of good points in other areas, including that Chinalco's stake in Rio Tinto will probably not affect the Oyu Tolgoi agreement, but in this respect he is fairly wrong.

Interview Season

2009-06-23T14:32:00.003-04:00

Apparently it's interview season in Mongolia.

Firstly there are two interviews out there with President Ts. Elbegdorj (whose inauguration is reviewed by Ming over here). The Bloomberg interview is rather short and to the point. Basically, Elbegdorj is dissatisfied with the current state of the Oyu Tolgoi Stability Agreement and wants it changed, though he has very little real power over that agreement.

The Al-Jazeera interview (linked both at the UB Post and the ACMS) is, as Al-Jazeera reports tend to be, much more in depth and interesting:

There were more than a few important points made in this video. Firstly, Elbegdorj does not fear any overrides of the Presidential veto, as his party controls enough of the Ikh Khural to block such an override. Whether his confidence is warranted remains to be seen. Also, Elbegdorj's ultimate goal for the mining sector appears to involve something like the Saudi/Alaskan system where each and every citizen gets some sort of direct payment from the exploitation of natural resources. In short, having the "ordinary people" get nothing is unacceptable. Moreover, Elbegdorj agrees with the IMF that getting the mining sector up to full capacity is critical for Mongolia's economic recovery.

However, when Al-Jazeera's reporter asked her most penetrating questions, whether Elbegdorj would seek total renegotiation of the Oyu Tolgoi agreement and whether Russia was using its influence over Mongolia to "hold the country hostage," he rather obviously dodged the issues at hand.

In the end, Elbegdorj's stance on the mining sector seems to be bound up with what he cited as his No.1 priority for his time in office: fixing Mongolia's extreme income inequality. If the nation's share of the profits from the largest mining ventures were redistributed to the population at large, that might go a long way towards closing the income gap and preventing Mongolia from becoming a clone of Kazakhstan.

Two other Mongolian mining officials also gave interviews recently, and I will ramble about those in a separate post.

Mining and Religion in Russia's Regions

2009-06-23T13:17:00.005-04:00

Between the holiday weekend and other distractions, I'm a bit behind on blogging (as pretentious as that sounds). Anyway, let's jump right in, starting with things happening in the pseudo-Mongolian regions of Russia.

In Kalmykia, the Narodnyi Khural is apparently discussing corruption as a serious issue. Whether this is a sincere endeavor to fix corruption or just a bit of showmanship is not at all certain.

At least 70,000 people are unemployed in the Transbaikal Region of Russia, which sits just north of Mongolia and which is home to thousands of Buryats. At the same time, the Federal government wants Transbaikal to become a "molybdenum, copper and gold Klondike." The near future of Inner Asia, and with it that of the Mongolian peoples, appears to be heavily dependent on mining and commodity export.

However, at the same time the Buryat Republic is apparently weathering the ongoing economic crisis better than any other region in Siberia. The Republican official cited in that article argues that the root of this difference is the Buryat Republic's lack of dependence on oil, coal, gas, or metallurgy-related industries. Though Buryatiya's economy is not exactly strong, it is less dependent on commodity export than other nearby regions. Ripping all the natural resources out of the ground may be the fast road to wealth, but it is also a crutch that may render a region's economy soft and vulnerable.

Lastly, also in the Buryat Republic two items of religion-related news cropped up this week. The Republic's Shamanic community is moving into the summer season, which is (as one might expect) a very important time of year for them. In addition to forseeing the dedication of many new shamans this year, they also apparently expect to revisit the ideas of organization and formal leadership, issues which are highly controversial among shamanic practicioners. Also, one of the claimants to the title of the 17th Karmapa has visited Ulan-Ude. Apparently many thousands of people from across Siberia and even the world traveled to Ulan-Ude to see and pray with His Holiness. This despite both the Karmapa Kagyu's divergence from the Dalai Lama's "Yellow Hat" branch of Tibetan Buddhism and the ongoing controversy over who really is the 17th Karmapa. These issues did not appear to matter to the sangha in Siberia, where any chance to see the head of a Tibetan Kagyu is a rare and precious opportunity.

Tyva in Context

2009-06-20T14:13:00.003-04:00

I don't normally like referencing Paul Goble as he tends to come across as a bit more of a Russophobe than I'm comfortable with. However, today on his blog there is a very good article discussing how Tyva and two other Russian Republics (Tatarstan and Bashkortostan) have effectively rejected the revisions to their constitutions that the Russian Supreme Court recently ordered.

Rather than going in to depth on Tatarstan and Bashkiriya, two regions which are outside the scope of this blog, I'll focus on the bits he mentions about Tyva and Buryatiya. Tyva, Goble indicates, is the most likely of these three regions to flip their stance in the near future. Buryatiya, on the other hand, is apparently already on the fast track to making the changes to its Constitution.

I have yet to hear anything about whether Kalmykiya either is required to or is actually making this set of constitutional changes.

In short, the Tatar and Bashkir leadership, according to Goble, appear to be fighting tooth and nail to resist the changes. The Republics with the strongest Mongolian heritage, however, are going along with the demands of the Federal Center.

Points at Issue

2009-06-20T11:54:00.003-04:00

There's an extremely short interview out there with a Minister of the Mongolian Government about the issues at the core of the endless delay of the Oyu Tolgoi stability agreement. In the end it comes down to this:

1) Will the government pay for its stake in the project, or will it just take the share for free? (You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out who wants what.)

2) For how long will the agreement last?

The first one might not even matter in a few months if President Elbegdorj gets his wishes regarding amendments to the agreement. The latter, well, the two sides will just have to compromise. Minister Zorigt indicates that progress has been made on "7-8 points and provisions."

The incredibly tiny silver lining to the cloud of endless delays is that it looks like both side are actually fighting for real and substantive goals, rather than merely dragging their feet. Of course, after a decade of waiting, negotiation and feet-dragging begin to look a lot alike.

BHP Billiton Out?

2009-06-18T11:51:00.004-04:00

BHP Billiton is closing their Mongolia exploration office.

My guess is that they don't think future exploration will be worth the funding it requires if they never get the opportunity to reap the rewards of said exploration.

And speaking of that, the Ivanhoe/Rio Tinto agreement continues to languish. That WSJ article is very much right in that this is an issue for the Ikh Khural, and that it is completely up to that body, as it has been for ages now, to finalize the agreement. Of course, the other side of that coin is that all the blame for stagnation is on their heads too.

Continuity

2009-06-18T09:56:00.002-04:00

Ts. Elbegdorj has finally transited from being President-Elect over to being President, as he was sworn in just yesterday. There were big public events, as well there should be, and the transfer of power officially took effect.

Both Elbegdorj and Enkhbayar took the opportunity to "address the people," one on the way in and the other on the way out.

Elbegdorj advocated an end to corruption and reform of the judicial system. However, he vowed to continue the "traditional" policy of balancing Mongolia's two large neighbors while bringing in "third" neighbors, including at least the USA and India, if not others.

Enkhbayar discussed how his political career had affected his life and expressed remorse over last year's post-election riot. He also exhorted the Ikh Khural to continue the "national development strategy," and pledged to support the new President, as well as the Ikh Khural and its Government.

Between these two addresses, we have a mixed bag of change and continuity from Elbegdorj, and advocacy of more continuity from Enkhbayar. The new President is probably right about foreign policy. The "third neighbor" game has served Mongolia fairly well so far, and rocking the boat there would not be wise. Whether he can effect his other promises though is tough to say. As Enkhbayar may have been trying to subtly hint, real legislative power lies with the Ikh Khural. Almost anything that Elbegdorj wants to do will have to go through them first. If his suggested reforms take as long as the mining stability agreements, Elbegdorj may well be out of office before any of his proposed changes are implemented.

Tyvan Constitutional Conflict

2009-06-18T09:35:00.003-04:00

Not too long ago, the Russian constitutional court issued a ruling demanding that the country's various ethnic Republics bring their constitutions in line with the Federal one. Of specific concern were provisions in Republican constitutions (dating back to the "parade of sovereignties" from the early 90s) that local laws would supersede Federal ones. It's not hard to guess why the "Federal Center" doesn't like that kind of provision.

At any rate, the Tyvan Ikh Khural yesterday rejected an attempt to set up a Constitutional Commission whose purpose would be to amend the Republic's foundational document. Apparently this was a rank-and-file revolt, as both the Ikh Khural's speaker Vitalii Val'kov and the Republican leader (technically "Prime Minister" rather than "President," a legacy of his devious predecessor) Sholban Kara-ool both were in favor of the motion to establish the Commission.

Val'kov is confident that "the Commission will sooner or later be established all the same, and it will bring the Tyvan Constitution in line with the Russian one." This could take some time, as this is the second time in two years that a motion to establish a Constitutional Commission has been rejected in Tyva, and because Mr. Kara-ool wants any document produced by that Commission to be approved by a popular referendum. With that kind of opposition, it could be a while before Tyva's constitution is "brought into line."

Tyvan Bribe Investigations

2009-06-17T11:26:00.003-04:00

Here's another Russian story about prosecution.

Two officials from the Tyvan Republic are facing criminal corruption charges. One of them, Disenma Kombu, is accused of "negligence of her duties due to illegal payments." Ms. Kombu (I'm presuming she's a she since her first name carries that "-ma" suffix, but Tyvan is Turkic and not Mongolic, so I could be wrong) is a comparatively minor Republic official, but she apparently was bribing "a deputy from Tuva who permanently lives and works in Moscow." Whoops. Welcome to Federal-prosecution-land. I wonder if by "deputy," they mean a Member of Parliament? That would be most interesting.

The other official under investigation is Anatolii Undezin, the chairman of the Kyzyl Kozhuun. Kyzyl is the capital of Tyva, and I get the impression that just the Tyvan word for a small administrative region. Mr. Undezin is accused of actually blackmailing people. How much did he get? 20,000 Rubles! That's about six hundred dollars folks. I understand that six hundred dollars will go much farther in Tyva than it will in Florida, for example, but who would risk being put in isolation in a Russian prison for that little?

Furthermore, corruption among officials in modern Russia is legendary. Why prosecute small-time people way out in Tyva when there are probably way bigger targets in Moscow? Is it that the procuracy felt safer going after these two? Is it because, in Mr. Undezin's case, he was also engaged in blackmail? Did he anger someone higher up? If his case becomes a show-trial, I hope its moral is "please don't do bribes." Who knows, it's possible. President Medvedev recently went on a blog-rant about how much corruption sucks.

On a vaguely related note, I'm probably going to make it a regular thing to talk about Tyva, Kalmykiya, and Buryatiya on this blog, since they're sort of Mongolian in their own ways. Talking about Inner Mongolia would be nice too, but information on that place is even harder to get when you don't read Chinese.

Don't worry, I'll still continue to spew my nonsense about Mongolia-proper. This way will just give more variety.

Boroo Still Closed

2009-06-17T11:20:00.002-04:00

Apparently that other article was wrong. The Boroo gold mine is still closed.

I can just see it now:

"Strike's over! Back to work!"

"Sir? The government shut down the mine."

"Aw dammit."

Elbegdorj's (Proposed) Amendments

2009-06-17T10:56:00.005-04:00

President-Elect Elbegdorj (who takes office tomorrow) has announced what he thinks should be done with the Ivanhoe stability agreement and the Windfall Profits Tax law.

Firstly, he wants provisions in the agreement on the State taking an equity share in the Oyu Tolgoi project (which has been bounced around the Ikh Khural for what feels like almost a decade) to be replaced with a high rate of taxation on profits. I can't imagine why he thinks this would be a good idea, except that the government would take a lot of the fun (that's a legal term) without any of the liability. Maybe it's a better arrangement for the State, but this project has been delayed for years already. I understand that he wants Mongolia to get things right the first time, with so much at stake, but when delay is the only thing you can predict, people start getting worried. If I were an investor, I would balk at this even more than at the equity stake. Of course, Elbegdorj's announcement might not matter at all, since he has no real power over the Ikh Khural short of a Presidential veto, which I doubt anyone really wants.

Secondly, he wants the part of the Windfall Profits Tax law that applies to copper production (or at least that part) to scale with the value of copper to be changed to a sort of graduated system. Currently (or at least as of July of last year when I last read through the law), this tax applied a 68% rate to a certain proportion of income from the sale of copper, a proportion derived from a not-exactly-simple set of calculations. That version of the law also would also leave Mongolia holding exactly $0 in times when the market price of copper dropped below a certain threshold. Elbegdorj's new version sounds a lot simpler, and also sounds like it would assure at least some mining-taxation-revenue for the State during periods of economic downturn. Simplicity and continued revenue are both good things. I do not, however, know if this will mean that mining firms will pay more or less in taxes than they do under the current tax regime. It might, but it might not too.

It should be more interesting to see what President Elbegdorj does once he's actually in office.

Scandal in Selenginsk

2009-06-16T20:22:00.005-04:00

Today appears to be a slow news-day in Mongolia, at least from here in the Lower 48. Therefore, let's hop over the northern border to Buryatiya again.

It would appear that an election official in Selenginsk Raion in the Buryat Republic was busted for forging a whopping 16 votes in a local election, in favor of (surprise!) the ruling party, United Russia. Story here, exactly identical original here. Given "western" criticism of the electoral process in Russia in the last few years, that a comparatively low-level official would take it upon themselves to rig a vote would be hardly surprising.

However, there are some curious details about this incident:

1) The individual being investigated was a member of, and was attempting to illegally help, United Russia. Party membership is not a bulwark against prosecution, but I would be surprised if the Party leadership doesn't try to get involved in this somehow.

2) She is currently being investigated by Republican, and not Federal, officials. I have no idea who has jurisdiction over what in Russia, between the Republican and Federal governments. However, the article indicates she broke a Federal law, so why the local charges?

3) Why only 16 votes? Selenginsk Raion is home to almost 50,000 individuals. Suppose that even only 10,000 of them voted, why waste your efforts on that small of a number? I seriously doubt that anyone would do something this stupid with so little expected payoff. I would expect instead that this would be part of a larger group-activity.

4) Moreover, if she really was the Chairperson of the city Electoral Commission, why would she just use an urn? With that much power over local results, why not tinker with all of the local election boxes?

It remains to be seen when and, if so, how Nadezhda Nikolayeva will be prosecuted for her alleged election fraud. However, I see a sufficient number of things wrong with this case that either she is the dumbest election stealer since Saddam Hussein or that this isn't about her alleged fraud at all. Instead, I suspect one of a few things, though these should all be taken as wild speculation. On the one hand, she might be undergoing punishment for something. It's possible that she somehow angered a local official and this is how she's being persecuted. It's also possible that this is some kind of show trial. If it is, then I hope that it's message will be "stop rigging elections." I mean, if the State going to engage in crazy abuse of the judicial system, it may as well be for a good purpose, right? If it is a show trial, and that's not the point, then the moral of the story is, in my view, more likely to be "don't piss off local officials."

I hope I hear more about this story. It sounds like an interesting one.

Boroo Strike Over

2009-06-16T09:14:00.003-04:00

According to this site anyway. Just so we're clear, the workers (I'm presuming the fired workers) demanded $9,500 in compensation and ultimately received $1,000 plus three months salary. I don't know what their salary is worth, but I'm guessing it's not enough to make up the difference.

Also, that article claims that the Boroo mine is back in working operation today. Does that mean the license suspension has been canceled too? I guess we have to presume so, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone "forgot" to do that officially.

It remains to be seen what the effects rippling out of this strike and its apparent settlement will be. I'm thrilled that the company and the workers managed to reach an agreement without some sort of Pinkerton-style incident. This is a good omen for both foreign investment and organized labor in Mongolia. I'm not so thrilled that the State felt it necessary to get involved, but then we don't yet know to what extent that really mattered. Hopefully more articles on this story come out over the course of the day.

Post

2009-06-13T11:33:00.002-04:00

The UB Post has left a critical word out of its headline article, but much more importantly has also run a passionate editorial on why the USA owes Mongolia a lot more support and attention than it's currently getting.

I normally shy away from all things op-ed, but In my view, this particular editorial couldn't be more right. Without quibbling over particular details, Mongolia really does deserve a lot more credit for both constructing and preserving Inner Asia's only remaining western-style democracy.

Anyway, one of the above articles is good for a quick Onion-style laugh and the other's a good read. I recommend checking out both.

More Boroo

2009-06-13T11:27:00.004-04:00

More articles about the revocation of the Boroo Gold mining license have emerged, with most observers apparently saying that Centerra can and will resolve the situation in comparatively short order. Supposedly the "senior management" is on its way to Mongolia to work things out.

I have no idea if this will work, but it certainly does seem that the government has captured the company's full attention.

Tugrug-Billionaires, Anyone?

2009-06-12T19:41:00.007-04:00

At first this may only appear tangentially related to Mongolia, but bear with me.

Today I saw this article talking about the absence of "dollar-billionaires" (that is, billionaires when their wealth is valued in dollars) in the Buryat Republic, which sits along the northern border of Mongolia. The Republic does have four ruble-billionaires, the richest of which is one of the Republic's four senators to the Federation Council, Vitalii Malkin, an ethnic Russian. I do not know who the other three ruble-billionaires are, as that article does not say, but it would not surprise me if they are also the other three of the Repulic's senators to the Federation Council.

Now, that article cited Forbes as its source (Forbes almost listed Malkin as a dollar-billionaire, but he was struck from the "projected" list as the financial crisis exploded). I hopped over to Forbes's website to see if any Mongolians rank among the super-wealthy of the world. As it happens, no one with Mongolian citizenship is on the list. Apparently this does not include unoficial billionaires like the soon-to-be-former First Lady Tsolmon.

Still, I thought maybe there might be an ethnic Buryat, Kalmyk, or Tyvan on Russia's dollar-billionaire list. Alas, no one. There appeared to be a few Georgian or Ukranian names on the list, but no representatives of non-Turkic
Altaic peoples. Nor were there any obvious Mongolian names on the list of Chinese billionaires. There might have been some, but they would have had Zhongwen names, and I wouldn't have recognized their heritage. The closest individual was a man by the name of Sun Guangxin, who resides in Urumqi, Xinjiang, but who is of Han nationality, and considers his home to be Shandong Province.

That leaves only First Lady Tsolmon, but she's an unofficial billionaire with her money squirreled away in a Swiss bank account. If we use the Forbes billionaire list as a (very shaky, highly questionable, and 100% sarcastic) measure of economic progress, then it looks like the Mongolian peoples, despite all of their wonderful achievements to date, still have a little work to do to match the filthy-richness of their two large neighbors and much of the rest of the world.

Unless next year Lady Tsolmon is more open about her money. Then everything's fine.