Most of you have probably already seen them, but Brian over at ACMS has collected details of the current version of the Oyu Tolgoi agreement from Mongolian-language newspapers and posted them.
There's no need for me to re-post the whole list of details here, since Brian's posts are well organized and in English too. In sum, there are a great whopping lot of taxes to be paid, Mongolia will retain a share in the project, the initial agreement will last for 30 years, and after four years 90% of the project's employees must be Mongolian, many trained abroad on Ivanhoe's dime.
Perhaps this isn't the most pro-Mongolia version of the agreement ever to be penned, but it's a whole lot better than either the stagnation of the last several years or having no public involvement at all in a project this important.
Supposedly it was going to be submitted to the Ikh Khural last Friday, but I haven't heard whether it passed, or if it even got to the floor for a vote. It's my understanding that Naadam has already started, so that's at least one rumor invalidated.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Russian Sources and Leanings
I know this post isn't strictly about Mongolia or Mongolic-Peoples, but there's a graphic going around grouping various Russia commentators into different categories along the axes of views on Russia and views on "the West."
I only mention it because I have linked to a couple of those guys before on this blog. Whether you agree with the categorization of a given source is up to you, but it's always good to know what sorts of biases and perceived biases may be coming with a given link.
I only mention it because I have linked to a couple of those guys before on this blog. Whether you agree with the categorization of a given source is up to you, but it's always good to know what sorts of biases and perceived biases may be coming with a given link.
Trouble in Altai
I wouldn't normally post here about an incident wherein Russian protesters had a confrontation with Russian riot-breakers, but this one happened very close to the Mongolian border.
Apparently a bunch of workers on the M-52 Highway, which is intended to someday connect the Siberian industrial center of Novosibirsk with Mongolia (though which currently only goes so far as the town of Aktash, according to Google Maps) decided they were going to protest bad conditions. This worked for disgruntled factory workers in Pikalevo, in European Russia, as they attracted the attention of Prime Minister Putin who quite publicly flipped out at the factory's owners.
The workers in Altai, however, got a facefull of OMON instead. Paul Goble, as usual, seems to think an apocalyptic showdown between Russia's government and people is on the horizon. As usual, I'm not so convinced (perhaps rightly, perhaps wrongly). But if it did happen, that would make yet another region neighboring Mongolia marred by riots and chaos.
In that case, Mongolia would become not only an "island of democracy" but perhaps an "island of stability" as well.
The last time Mongolia was the only calm place in a sea of fire, a guy remembered by history as "The Mad Baron" decided to move there. That would not be a chapter of history anyone would want to repeat.
Apparently a bunch of workers on the M-52 Highway, which is intended to someday connect the Siberian industrial center of Novosibirsk with Mongolia (though which currently only goes so far as the town of Aktash, according to Google Maps) decided they were going to protest bad conditions. This worked for disgruntled factory workers in Pikalevo, in European Russia, as they attracted the attention of Prime Minister Putin who quite publicly flipped out at the factory's owners.
The workers in Altai, however, got a facefull of OMON instead. Paul Goble, as usual, seems to think an apocalyptic showdown between Russia's government and people is on the horizon. As usual, I'm not so convinced (perhaps rightly, perhaps wrongly). But if it did happen, that would make yet another region neighboring Mongolia marred by riots and chaos.
In that case, Mongolia would become not only an "island of democracy" but perhaps an "island of stability" as well.
The last time Mongolia was the only calm place in a sea of fire, a guy remembered by history as "The Mad Baron" decided to move there. That would not be a chapter of history anyone would want to repeat.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Five-Nation Festival
The 70th Anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol will be observed in September in five different countries.
However, the battle only had four belligerents, so what's going on here?
Of the four original combatants, Japan is no longer an Empire, Mongolia is no longer a People's Republic, Manchuko is totally gone, and the USSR has broken up.
Of the countries marking the battle, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia are all former members of the USSR, and to varying degrees still honor its memory deeply. Post-imperial Japan and post-communist Mongolia are also observing the occasion. This leaves three USSR successor states and two original participants.
As for original participant number four, China does not appear to be marking the event, probably planning to just cover its ears and pretend Manchuko never existed.
However, the battle only had four belligerents, so what's going on here?
Of the four original combatants, Japan is no longer an Empire, Mongolia is no longer a People's Republic, Manchuko is totally gone, and the USSR has broken up.
Of the countries marking the battle, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia are all former members of the USSR, and to varying degrees still honor its memory deeply. Post-imperial Japan and post-communist Mongolia are also observing the occasion. This leaves three USSR successor states and two original participants.
As for original participant number four, China does not appear to be marking the event, probably planning to just cover its ears and pretend Manchuko never existed.
Dalai Lama Returning To Russia?
It's more likely than not, says an Ulan-Ude Buddhist leader.
Apparently, the official stance of the Russian Foreign Ministry, since January of this year, is that "no insurmountable obstacles" remain to his visit, and that the Ministry "is ready to review the possibility of his pastoral/ministerial visit to Russia in 2009."
His last visit was in 2004, to Kalmyikiya, and he has apparently not yet made it to Buryatiya (a fact which I think I knew at some point but forgot), so a visit this year would be a big deal of Russia's Buddhist community.
However, despite the Ministry's public willingness, some concrete obstructions do remain, according to the above article. On the one hand, a visit by a global-level VIP would be expensive for the host region, and the Buryat Republican government is not exactly awash in spare funds this year. On the other, the PRC always fumes when His Holiness goes anywhere that isn't Dharamsala.
However, the politics surrounding a Dalai Lama visit to Russia would inevitably get wrapped up in President Medvedev's planned visit to Mongolia this September for the 70th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. Denying a visa to His Holiness and then trying to visit Mongolia would be something akin to Gordon Brown denying the Pope a visa and then trying to visit Italy. It would be awkward at best.
Moreover, I would not be surprised that if the Dalai Lama does visit Ulan-Ude then he would also make a stop in Mongolia, since it is right next door and home to many more Tibetan Buddhist faithful. If, as a result, Medvedev and the Dalai Lama were in Ulaanbaatar at the same time, would they meet?
I do not expect modern Russia to re-assume the Empire's curious role in Tibetan politics, but I do expect the Dalai Lama issue will complicate further Russia's relationship with China on some level.
Correction: I misunderstood the above linked article. The Dalai Lama has visited Buryatiya, and even Tyva, before, it's just been almost twenty years since the last time he was in that part of Russia.
Apparently, the official stance of the Russian Foreign Ministry, since January of this year, is that "no insurmountable obstacles" remain to his visit, and that the Ministry "is ready to review the possibility of his pastoral/ministerial visit to Russia in 2009."
His last visit was in 2004, to Kalmyikiya, and he has apparently not yet made it to Buryatiya (a fact which I think I knew at some point but forgot), so a visit this year would be a big deal of Russia's Buddhist community.
However, despite the Ministry's public willingness, some concrete obstructions do remain, according to the above article. On the one hand, a visit by a global-level VIP would be expensive for the host region, and the Buryat Republican government is not exactly awash in spare funds this year. On the other, the PRC always fumes when His Holiness goes anywhere that isn't Dharamsala.
However, the politics surrounding a Dalai Lama visit to Russia would inevitably get wrapped up in President Medvedev's planned visit to Mongolia this September for the 70th anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. Denying a visa to His Holiness and then trying to visit Mongolia would be something akin to Gordon Brown denying the Pope a visa and then trying to visit Italy. It would be awkward at best.
Moreover, I would not be surprised that if the Dalai Lama does visit Ulan-Ude then he would also make a stop in Mongolia, since it is right next door and home to many more Tibetan Buddhist faithful. If, as a result, Medvedev and the Dalai Lama were in Ulaanbaatar at the same time, would they meet?
I do not expect modern Russia to re-assume the Empire's curious role in Tibetan politics, but I do expect the Dalai Lama issue will complicate further Russia's relationship with China on some level.
Correction: I misunderstood the above linked article. The Dalai Lama has visited Buryatiya, and even Tyva, before, it's just been almost twenty years since the last time he was in that part of Russia.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Oyu Tolgoi Almost There?
Ivanhoe is saying that both Mongolian political parties have signed off on the Oyu Tolgoi stability agreement. The agreement then goes to the full Ikh Khural, supposedly on Friday. That latter article indicates 10 parliamentarians are already openly opposed to the agreement while an equal number are openly for it. That makes up less than one-third of the whole body so this thing isn't completely over yet. At the same time, public opposition appears to be small (at the moment).
Friday will be a big day for this project, one way or another.
Friday will be a big day for this project, one way or another.
More Dalai Lama Birthday Things
The July 6th holiday did get a good deal of observance in Buryatiya after all, involving a long celebration at a theater Ulan-Ude attended by a number of officials, governmental, religious, academic, and otherwise.
His Holiness has also been invited to attend an academic conference entitled "Science and Buddhism" in Ulan-Ude in September.
On the one hand, the Russian state is completely fine with China's various policies in Tibet. On the other, its officials attend the Dalai Lama's birthday celebrations and the state lets His Holiness visit occasionally. Russia walks a curious middle ground on this one.
His Holiness has also been invited to attend an academic conference entitled "Science and Buddhism" in Ulan-Ude in September.
On the one hand, the Russian state is completely fine with China's various policies in Tibet. On the other, its officials attend the Dalai Lama's birthday celebrations and the state lets His Holiness visit occasionally. Russia walks a curious middle ground on this one.
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